Canadiens Analysis
Calder Talk: Canadiens Lane Hutson Historical Scoring Comparison
With a three-point effort on Monday night versus the Vancouver Canucks, Montreal Canadiens skater Lane Hutson now leads all NHL rookies in points, with three goals and 27 assists in 40 games.
Considering he’s a defenceman, it’s a rather impressive showing from the 20-year-old player, especially since he’s trending toward one of the most productive seasons from a rookie defenceman in recent NHL history, connoting the Calder Trophy conversation is sure to make its way to the forefront in the near future.
He’s currently on pace for 61 points, which would be the first time a rookie defenceman reached the 60-point mark since Nicklas Lidstrom, who is arguably the best blueliner to play in the league since Bobby Orr or Larry Robinson. I’d go as far as arguing he was actually better than both, but that’s a topic for another day, and we all know it’s very difficult to compare players over different eras.
Keeping Context At The Forefront
With that in mind, we’re going to compare players from different eras, a cardinal sin in hockey analysis, in a bid to establish the value of Hutson’s hot start.
Before we get going, I’d like to remind everyone this is far from a scientific calculation. For broad strokes purposes, we’ll compare the first 40 games in the NHL from various high-end defencemen, including some of the best in league history. The players picked for the comparison are very arbitrary, with the only common theme being they’re top-end defencemen.
There are a few other things to keep in mind as we discuss blue line production. Not every defenceman is used in the same role, and usage is crucial when it comes to establishing a neutral baseline for comparisons. We’re also going to discuss production in all situations, as the 5v5 data for players such as Brian Leetch and Bobby Orr is rather difficult to come by.
Additionally, not all the players listed below were the same age when they played 40 games, another important factor.
Finally, we removed partial seasons from the list. For example, Hutson’s first two NHL games aren’t included, even if he did register two points. Nor are Chris Chelios’ 12 games from 1983-84. We’re only taking a look at their production during their first full season that included 40 games.
There are a few things that immediately stand out from the list.
Hutson isn’t the most productive player by any means, but he’s definitely in great company. Cale Makar’s early production is so impressive that he ranks among some of those first-ballot Hall of Fame defenceman, while Brian Leetch’s ridiculous rookie scoring pace will probably stand at the top of the list for the foreseeable future.
Either way, the fact that Hutson is sandwiched between Orr, Quinn Hughes, Chelios, and Makar bodes rather well for the rest of his career.
Lane Hutson 5v5 Production
We do have access to 5v5 stats from some modern defencemen on the list, which allows us to avoid many of the variables that factored into the first comparison.
After all, powerplay production is great, but most of the game is played at 5v5.
As you can see, not only is Hutson the busiest player in the list, he ranks quite well compared to his present-day NHL counterparts when it comes to points per 60 at 5v5.
There’s obviously more to playing in the NHL than generating points, but almost every Stanley Cup champion has had a player of Hutson’s ilk in their lineup, and most of the players listed above also dealt with a cacophony of criticism from jealous fan bases that couldn’t see the forest for the trees when evaluating defensive and offensive impact from puck-moving defencemen.
Besides, now that he’s had a few months to acclimatize to his new team, or more accurately, his new team has had a few months to acclimatize to him, Hutson’s defensive numbers are improving by leaps and bounds.
Of course, there’s still some work to be done in that regard, and if Hutson’s teammates did a little better job capitalizing on the endless stream of high-danger chances he creates, he’d likely be closer to 40 or 50 points, but the fact of the matter is that Hutson isn’t just producing a lot of points, he’s keeping pace with some of the best rookie defencemen in the league, past and present.
Lane Hutson play that should have been an assist No.496591 this season: pic.twitter.com/0bjgiph4yo
— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) January 7, 2025
All Lane Hutson statistics via NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick.
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He is not a big defenseman or robust or the fastest or best skater; he is simply brilliant at this point. He will get stronger, maybe a bit taller?, skating will improve and he WILL win the Norris oneday. I sure hope he continues trending up and wins the Calder. Go Lane !!
I am pretty sure I would take Larry Robinson over him!
Over Lidstrom or Hutson?
Either way, you’d have a solid argument. But I do maintain Lidstrom should be mentioned alongside Orr and Robinson when it comes to the best defenceman of all time.
With all due respect, Bobby Orr is in another category compared to the other defensemen mentioned in this article. He is considered one of the greatest players of all time (alongside Gretzky, Lemieux and Howe). As a Habs fan, I greatly admire Robinson but he doesn’t compare to Orr (and neither does Lindstrom). Robinson would probably agree to that assessment. Orr was a combination of speed, toughness, and vision which hasn’t been matched by most players. He led the league in scoring at least once and score 40+ goals once and 30+ goals 4 times. Hutson has a good future ahead of him, but will likely not reach the Orr level.
When a rookie defenceman puts up the kind of points Hutson is putting up, on a rebuilding team, why is there even a discussion? If the three contenders for the Calder continue their current pace, it will be a travesty if Hutson does not win the trophy.
It can be reasonably argued that Lane is the best player in the 2022 entry draft. Would you take him or Slafkovsky today? That two game preview last year demonstrated he had “it”. I recall an in depth analysis was done in him after his first year at BU where they measured his foot speed, quickness etc and said his schtick wouldn’t work at the nhl level. It was a convincing argument and I bought into it. When I saw him play Detroit on April 15 2024 I knew he was special and would be successful offensively. As the smallest player in the league, I had serious doubts about his ability to defend and I still think he should be managed on the very physically tough sssignments.
BUT, he’s plus 9 over the past 8 games, that’s Larry Robinson territory (who I take over Lidstrom maybe partially as he was my childhood hero with Lafleur but there is no wrong answer between them)
Point is, he shown that he can play both ends but he’s a 20 year old rookie so defensive struggles are part of that demographic package. And it’s true that he should be at least 10 points ahead of where he is based on the unrealized scoring chances he created Then after watching younger brother Cole be the first defenseman to lead the wjhc in points, I’m even more disappointed that we didn’t go after him in Junes draft. Caps have their John Carlson replacement in the organization That Hutson family oozes talent.
Did I mention plus 9 in his past 8 games!!
Ps Montembault almost cost us that game last night, not his finest work.
Lane #1,
twist my arm for either Slaf or Cooley at #2.
It’s interesting to compare Hutson’s first 40 games to other rookie d-men in history but there are different things to consider. Age was mentioned by the author , that’s a big one . The top 6 listed from Leetch to Hughes were all aged 20-22 , Orr at # 7 was just 18 in 1966/67.
As well a lot depends on the quality of team the player started with , The top 2 , Leetch and Lidstrom were with playoff teams that scored 310 and 320 goals respectively in New York and Detroit . And a lot more goals were scored overall in the eighties and nineties when they started . Orr’s Bruins by comparison were the league doormats and missed the playoffs for several years before he arrived . In his rookie season , his team finished last with just 44 points ( 70 game schedule) . That Bruins team scored just 182 goals .
After 40 games , Hutson and the Habs are in a playoff spot and have 122 goals scored as a team .
Can’t say I dislike seeing Huston ranked around where Quinn Hughes was as a rookie. Even getting someone close to that calibre of hockey player bodes well for the future of this team. I’ve no doubt Slaf will eventually become a more consistent and impactful forward. Then you throw in Suzuki, Caufield, Demidov and Laine, if we can resign him…. Fowler/Dobes, Guhle… Future really doesn’t like so bad for the Habs. We might actually get to a point where we have an embarrassment of riches.
-7 this season. Defenseman supposed to play defense!
Example: The 2022-23 San Jose Sharks had only 22 regulation wins and finished the season with the fourth worse record on the league (we were 5th). Yet a defenseman from that same team won the Norris Trophy with +/- of -26!!! On top of the trophy, Erik Karlsson received contract incentives ($$$) and his teammates got to play golf. Larry Robinson was a +120 when he won the Norris. Any defenseman with a negative +/- should never be considered for any accolades. Do we want a showboat that hangs his goalie & team out to dry or someone who protects the house and gets us to the post season?
He def has a chance for the Calder, but not fair comparisons to Orr and Robinson, and even Leetch and Chelios. Much different eras. The better comparison is to like players in today’s NHL. I would compare him to the following 6 dmen, and their rookie years:
He’s right in the middle, after half his rookie season…which is incredible. He will be better than PK, who was more of a hot dog and committed dumb penalties.
At this point, I can say with ease, that if the 2022 draft could be redone, Lane would be the consensus #1 pick, with Slaf or Cooley #2 or #3. Barring significant injuries, he should easily become a pt per game dman, beginning next season and for the indefinite future. With that, Guhle is perfect compliment to Lane (or even ReinB, if he becomes better than Guhle). The other can play on the 2nd line with Mailloux – again, a perfect compliment. Then Arbor + X on the 3rd line.
That’s some D lineup…and all young and improving each year.