Canadiens Analysis: Early Results From Carrier Trade Encouraging

It’s only been three games, but the trade to acquire Alexandre Carrier from the Nashville Predators is already paying off for the Montreal Canadiens.

Of course, replacing Justin Barron, primarily an offensive-minded defenceman, with Carrier, a defensive-minded defenceman, was always meant to add a little stability to a very chaotic blue line, and we’re only discussing three games, a very limited sample size, but the early results are worth exploring.

Alexandre Carrier Impact With The Montreal Canadiens

The first major improvement that surfaced with Carrier’s arrival was Kaiden Guhle’s return to his natural side. That’s not to say Guhle was a fish out of water when he was playing on the right, but if the Canadiens have any chance of developing Guhle into a permanent first-pairing defenceman, playing him on the left is a necessary step.

Speaking of which, Guhle’s stats have improved tenfold since being paired with Carrier. It helps that the Habs faced the struggling Detroit Red Wings on two occasions, an important detail worth keeping in mind as the schedule becomes more challenging, but it’s also fair to say Guhle’s underlying numbers have rarely reached this point. Together, Carrier and Guhle have controlled over 60 percent of the shots, 67 percent of the expected goals, and 67 percent of the high-danger scoring chances, an area of weakness for both the Canadiens and Guhle.

While playing alongside any defensive partner not named Carrier, Guhle’s numbers plunge to the sub-45 percent level in all three categories, with his share of expected goals and high-danger chances landing closer to 40 percent than 50 percent. In other words, the combination of having to play with questionable defensive partners, not to mention playing on his offside, has led to underwhelming results when Guhle has been on the ice in the last couple of years.

Guhle’s reaction to the first few games alongside Carrier was telling, as he explained it’s quite enjoyable to be paired with such a solid defensive presence. I’d argue it’s the first time in his career he is not the one covering for his partner.

Again, we’re dealing with a limited sample size, but if Carrier’s arrival can help propel Guhle to the next level, the trade will end up being one of the best investments by general manager Kent Hughes.

Alexandre Carrier Individual And Team Results

Carrier has also managed to produce the best individual results by a defenceman from an underlying numbers’ perspective, though we should note that the entire team has played quite well since the trade.

There’s certainly a correlation between Carrier’s arrival and the team’s improved results, though we can’t really suggest causation, at least not yet.

But consider this.

Prior to the Carrier trade, the Habs were ranked 29th in shot share (46.2%), 30th in expected goals (44.6%), and 30th in high-danger scoring chance share (43.8%).

Since the trade, the Canadiens are 5th in shot share (57.5%), 8th in expected goals (53.6%), and  8th in high-danger scoring chance share (53.2%).

That’s not just a minor improvement, that’s the sign of a team that has been playing playoff-worthy hockey for the last stretch. Again, we must guard against making any long-term proclamations about Carrier’s value. In three more games, we’ll have double the sample size, which should give us a better handling of the situation, especially once the Canadiens face teams that are fighting for a playoff spot.

And then there’s always the grind of playing on a team destined for a top-10 pick. After a while, the enthusiasm tends to fade, which can lead to a downtick in stats.

But for now, Canadiens fans can rest easy knowing the early results from the  Carrier trade are the epitome of encouraging, and most importantly, exactly what the doctor ordered for a very young defensive group that lacked stability.

All Montreal Canadiens and Alexandre Carrier stats are 5v5, unless otherwise noted. Via Natural Stat Trick.