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Canadiens Analysis

Habs Analysis: Comparing Slafkovsky And Newhook On Top Line

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Montreal Canadiens Alex Newhook Habs

The Montreal Canadiens are still one of the youngest teams in the NHL, which means they will go through a laundry-list of combinations before they can establish their ideal lines.



Even though we gain a certain element of foresight when we evaluate predictive statistics, the true conclusion can only be reached once we give players an opportunity to prove their worth on the ice.

It’s why the inclusion of ‘advanced statistics’, as some call them, has not ruined the sport. If anything, now that every NHL team keeps a close eye on important statistics, the scoring pace has gone up significantly. But we all know there’s a difference between being good on paper, versus actual results on the ice. There are so many factors to consider that even the most conservative predictions can quickly run afoul.

Alex Newhook Vs. Juraj Slafkovsky

Prior to Alex Newhook’s inclusion on the top line, the numbers suggested he was far from the ideal player to be used alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. He struggled to generate scoring chances, a rather big issue when we consider his defensive play is far from elite. To make matters more complicated, very few players have managed to produce encouraging underlying numbers while playing on the team’s first line.

Kirby Dach did for a brief stretch, as did Sean Monahan, but in reality, the only true winger that improved the first line was the youngest player in the lineup, Juraj Slafkovsky.

Unfortunately, Caufield, Suzuki, and Slafkovsky had a hard time re-igniting their chemistry in the early parts of the 2024-25 season, which eventually led to head coach Martin St-Louis throwing Newhook in the mix after he relegated Slafkovsky to the fourth line, alongside Dach.

Did Newhook deserve a promotion to the top line? Absolutely not, but we also have to remember St-Louis is working with very limited options.

Montreal Canadiens First-Line Numbers

Suzuki, Caufield, and Slafkovsky finished the 2023-24 season with very respectable underlying numbers. They controlled almost 51 percent of the shots, as well as 51.7 percent of the expected goals. They controlled fewer than 50 percent of the high-danger chances, but relative to the rest of the team, it was a positive result.

However, 2024-25, which featured Slafkovsky on the first line from the very get-go, did not yield great statistics. They only controlled 40 percent of the shots, 34.5 percent of the expected goals, and 33 percent of the high-danger chances. In other words, the top line was on the ice for almost 40 total high-danger chances, but only managed to generate 13 of their own (13-26).

Again, we must consider the context. Slafkovsky was dealing with a lingering issue, and they were far from the only line in the NHL to stumble out of the gates. It’s par for the course, but it’s also difficult to ignore in the first stretch of the season, as having a struggling first line is a recipe for disaster.

When St-Louis eventually turned to Newhook, admittedly, I suggested there was a possibility it could end up being a disaster, as his offensive impact simply was not high enough to compensate for his defensive liabilities.

And now that we’ve had a chance to watch them in action for a few games, which also produced a fresh set of stats, I have to admit that I was wrong, at least in the short term.

With Newhook on the top line, Suzuki and Caufield have controlled almost 60 percent of the shots, and over 50 percent of the high-danger chances, a clear improvement over the numbers produced with Slakfovsky in place. We’ve also seen Newhook use his blazing speed with more regularity, which has led to an improved individual scoring rate.

In short, not only has Newhook improved since he’s been placed on the top line, so have the team’s two best players.

Now, if I had to toss a caveat on this analysis, it’s that last year’s numbers with Slafkovsky included a much healthier sample size (750 minutes at 5v5), whereas Newhook has played a little over 100 minutes in the same role.

There’s a lot of hockey left to play, and if the situation changes, returning Slafkovsky to the top line could end up being the right path forward, because we have evidence he can make a positive impact.

Once we have a few more games in the books, we will have to revisit the results. There’s also the matter of the second line having a hard time at 5v5, though that was to be expected, as both Dach and Slafkovsky were struggling before Patrik Laine was included in the lineup. The good news is that they are starting to build a little chemistry after a difficult start.


But for now, given the early-season results, Newhook seems to be the best option on the first line, which, in turn, will allow the Montreal Canadiens to give the second line more time to find their rhythm.


All Montreal Canadiens statistics are via Natural Stat Trick.

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