Top 3 Things To Expect With Patrik Laine In The Canadiens Lineup

Even though he managed to score two goals in his first two games with the Montreal Canadiens, it’s still much too early to expect Patrik Laine to make a significant positive impact on the team’s underlying statistics.

Asking for more patience from Habs fans is probably wearing thin at this point in the rebuild, but given that Laine missed almost an entire calendar year, treating the remainder of the 2024-25 schedule as a long-term audition, or rather, an extended tune-up period, is the safest way forward.

That being said, here are three things we can expect in the relatively near future now that Laine has recovered from his injury.

Improved 5v5 Play

Scoring on the powerplay is one thing, as it essentially allows Laine to use his most potent offensive weapon, his fantastic shot, in concert with additional space in premium scoring areas on the ice.

Playing well at 5v5 on the other hand, well, that usually takes a lot of time, not to mention some semblance of chemistry between the three players on each line.

It’s a particularly daunting challenge for Laine, and not just because of the many layers of rust that accumulated over the summer. He’s being used alongside Kirby Dach and Juraj Slafkovsky on the second line, two players who have had their fair share of struggles this year.

At this point, you can probably guess in what direction this paragraph is heading.

The second line has been eaten alive in the last three games. They’ve controlled fewer than 30 percent of the shots, 23 percent of the high-danger chances, and just 25 percent of the expected goals. In short, they spend most of their time at 5v5 defending, which is the opposite of a situation that’s conducive to producing offence.

It’s too early to panic, as they’ve only been together for 34 minutes at 5v5. And you’d be hard-pressed to suggest it’s Laine that is holding them back, as his linemates were having a difficult season before he joined the line.

Chemistry takes time to form, and the good news is that there’s plenty of runway left in the season to give the Laine, Dach, and Slafkovsky line ample opportunities to find their rhythm.

The Habs can afford to be patient because Alex Newhook’s presence on the first line has led to very interesting results. Like many, I was surprised to see Newhook bumped up to the top line. I went as far as suggesting it would be a redux of Josh Anderson’s adventures with Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki.

But in the 90 minutes Newhook, Caufield, and Suzuki have played together, they’ve produced some very encouraging results, to the tune of a 63 percent control of shots, and 53 percent of the expected goals. If the top trio can continue to drive the play, St-Louis will be less tempted to break up the redemption line.

They control fewer than 50 percent of the high-danger chances, which means there’s room for improvement, but on a team like the Habs that desperately needs to do a better job controlling the flow of games if they’re ever to climb out of the basement of the NHL standings, Newhook’s impact on the top line has been a welcome surprise. I know it doesn’t feel like they’ve been dominant, but perception can  be affected by a myriad of factors.

In other words, my prediction that Newhook would be an Anderson redux is starting to look as accurate as when I suggested the Ottawa Senators were wise to keep Wade Redden over Zdeno Chara.

The main caveat in the top line’s case is that Newhook can’t afford to take a single shift off if he’s to be given premium minutes. His offensive impact must outweigh his obvious defensive issues.

Speed through the NZ by Newhook leads to this Cole Caufield goal. Good work by Suzuki to capitalize on the loose puck.#GoHabsGo up 2-0 on the Capitals. pic.twitter.com/6hN20OAC0P

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) December 8, 2024

Powerplay Prowess

Unlike the lack of early positive results at 5v5, which was to be expected, Laine’s presence has improved the powerplay to the point that Habs fans may stop mentioning Andrei Markov every time the powerplay fails to score.

Again, we’re dealing with a very limited sample size, but suffice it to say the change in stats has been jaw-dropping. To give you a good idea, we can take a look at their shot rates before and after Laine joined the man-advantage.

Prior to Laine’s debut, the Habs produced a measly 85.5 shots per 60, the second-worst result in the NHL.

With Laine in the mix, the Habs are almost hitting 140 shots per 60, good for fourth in the NHL in the last stretch of games.

The same phenomenon occurred in expected goals, with the team going from 7.4 xGF per 60 (17th in the NHL) to 14 xGF per 60 with Laine (4th in the NHL). Those are staggering improvements even if we do consider the numbers will change significant as the sample size grows.

But even if we expect the numbers to normalize to a certain extent, having a player with Laine’s fantastic release and elite accuracy gives the team more shooting options while on the man-advantage, which is usually a recipe for long-term success.

Patrik Laine wasted no time scoring his first goal for the #GoHabsGo.

PP goal, Canadiens up 1-0. Hutson and Suzuki with the assists. pic.twitter.com/1ghjwpEIIT

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) December 4, 2024

Staying In The Moment

Playing well during games is always a priority, however, Laine’s recent history suggests he’s a great example of how tenacity, focus, and stoicism can overcome adversity, and that should help the team navigate the second-half of the season.

Rebuilds can be very difficult for players, especially those who enjoyed success at every level before reaching the NHL. Young players tend to look too far ahead when things go wrong, which can sometimes muddy the day-to-day waters, giving plenty of space for impatience to grow.

Having a player like Laine in the lineup is a good reminder that it’s important to take things in stride, not to mention live in the present, as he knows all too well that things can go awry in a hurry.

“Nothing, I was just enjoying it. I’ve never heard a crowd that loud.” – Laine about what he thought when the Bell Centre gave him an ovation.

I like that answer. Living in the moment is never a bad idea.

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) December 4, 2024