Canadiens Analysis
Examining Potential Canadiens Trade Involving Mike Matheson
Even though the NHL’s Trade Deadline is months away, scheduled for March 7, 2025, it’s never too early to start discussing potential trades for various players, including Montreal Canadiens defenceman Mike Matheson.
Daily Faceoff published their most recent Trade Target list, with Matheson listed as the 13th player who could garner interest on the NHL’s trade market, and while many will suggest that’s a trade that must be made, we would be foolish to ignore Matheson’s impact. We also have to recognize these lists aren’t always very accurate, and that a name appearing as a trade target is far from a guarantee they will be moved.
With that in mind, let’s discuss the potential impact of trading Matheson between now and the NHL’s Trade Deadline.
Seller Beware
The most obvious advantage to having Matheson in the lineup is his ability to generate offence from the backend. He finished ninth in defenceman scoring last season, ahead of many blueliners that are considered to be better in the offensive zone, including Miro Heiskanen, Kris Letang, Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson, Rasmus Dahlin, Zach Werenski, and Morgan Rielly. It’s also important to note the eight defencemen ahead of him in scoring were mostly former Norris Trophy winners, or players on massive contracts.
Matheson, on the other hand, is on a contract that only costs the team $4.875M per season.
Even though the Canadiens had a difficult start, Matheson is once again on pace to produce more than 50 points, which will be the second-most productive season of his career.
He also has the ability to absorb a ridiculous amount of ice time in the Canadiens lineup, as he’s currently the busiest player on the team, with an average ice time of over 24 minutes per game (all situations).
WOW.
Mike Matheson with an early goal-of-the-year candidate.
End-to-end beauty. pic.twitter.com/MLJLiz5bSf
— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) October 25, 2023
And while fans can’t wait to see Lane Hutson take over from Matheson as the team’s No.1 powerplay quarterback, we should probably point out Matheson is the only Canadiens player to rank in the NHL’s top 10 of powerplay scoring since Andrei Markov retired.
I have no doubt Hutson will take over at some point, but having both players in place is one of the main reasons the team improved their powerplay significantly this season. And as we saw while Matheson missed the last two games, adding Hutson to the first powerplay unit isn’t a magic trick that leads to an endless flow of goals.
Cole Caufield scored a powerplay goal on Wednesday night while Hutson was on the ice, but the play had very little to do with No.48’s presence on the first powerplay unit. It was smart decision-making by Juraj Slafkovsky after an overly aggressive shorthanded rush by the Blue Jackets that set up the goal.
But #13 pour le #13 à Columbus! ❤
Tout est dans tout. pic.twitter.com/5NG49Fl7Tq
— RDS (@RDSca) November 28, 2024
That’s not to say Hutson is a bad powerplay quarterback. In the two games in which he was the go-to guy on the man advantage, the Habs produced slightly more shots and scoring chances than they did on average when Matheson is playing.
But it wasn’t a drastic uptick in either case, and it was against two teams that are among the bottom-10 in the NHL for penalty kill efficiency. In other words, we need more data before jumping to conclusions.
For now, Matheson (3.61/60) is producing more points per 60 on the powerplay than Hutson (3.44/60), a good reminder that Matheson has, in fact, been efficient on the powerplay despite his questionable defensive choices in that role. That being said, I’d suggest Hutson would probably improve his stats if he was used on the first powerplay unit with regularity.
Either way, removing Matheson from the equation puts even more pressure on Hutson, and as it stands, he’s the second-busiest player in the lineup, with an average ice time of 23:12 in all situations, good for 29th among all NHL defencemen. He’s also the player that head coach Martin St-Louis relies on most during 5v5 play, as he leads all players, including Matheson and Kaiden Guhle, in average ice time (18:36, 5v5).
I understand that moving Matheson out opens up the door to Hutson playing more often with the man advantage, but there’s a point of diminishing returns when you grind a rookie into dust before he can really find his rhythm in the NHL. Hutson is used to playing 40 or so games in the NCAA, which means his body may hit the proverbial wall in a couple of months, just as Jayden Struble did last year, not to mention hundreds of defencemen before him. Hutson played a lot for Boston University, one of the reasons he’s been able to jump into a hectic situation with a bottom-five team, but most of those minutes in the NCAA were spent in the offensive zone, and when he was defending, he wasn’t dealing with the type of physicality that he’s currently seeing in the NHL.
Hutson is a thoroughbred, and you have to let him run, but the Habs must guard against pushing a young player to the limit from the very get-go, as they risk running into more problems than solutions if Hutson stumbles.
Besides, having Hutson on the ice for more 5v5 ice time than Matheson is a boon for the Habs from a statistical standpoint. And it also allows him to focus on what is arguably his greatest weakness, defending the rush and outworking opponents during 1v1 battles. We all know Hutson will end up being a great powerplay quarterback, but for now, the Canadiens have a pretty good situation given that they’re a top-10 powerplay team. There’s absolutely no rush to increase the minutes for the youngest and second-busiest defenceman in the lineup.
Simply put, Matheson serves as a fantastic insurance policy as Hutson gets acclimatized to life in the NHL.
A noted improvement from Lane Hutson when it comes to defending the crease. It’s probably his greatest weakness, but he’s compensating with an active stick in the last stretch, and it’s working out nicely. #GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/ABs6yBjYFk
— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) November 24, 2024
His speed has also led to a bevy of high-danger scoring chances for the Habs in recent years, as evidenced by the many highlight clips showing Matheson exiting the zone with speed and control of the puck.
This isn’t a conventional controlled exit by Mike Matheson, but it definitely still counts. #GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/nTuaF3syGk
— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) November 24, 2024
Buyer Interest
At this point, I’ve written over 1000 words praising Matheson’s qualities, which could convey the message that I am against trading him, but that’s not accurate. More than anything, the Matheson section was to point out the Canadiens may end up taking a step back in the short term if they do decide to move on, as it would not only be Hutson who would be forced to play more often, but a few other young defencemen who have struggled this year.
The NHL is a business, and managing asset value is a key part of the equation. Matheson is on the seventh year of an eight-year contract, and though teams traditionally trade for players on expiring contracts to bolster their playoff lineups, I’d expect general managers to see Matheson having an additional year left on a very reasonable contract to be a bonus, not a drawback.
Of course, Matheson is far from elite in his own zone. He’s a rush defenceman, and defensive miscues are fairly common. His usage is one of the biggest issues, as he’s probably best suited to be on the second pairing, which would lead to a lower quality of competition, but the Habs don’t have that luxury. This has led to using Matheson in a role best suited for an $8 million defenceman. Playoff teams, on the other hand, don’t lack a bona fide No.1 defenceman, connoting that Matheson could end up in a situation that’s more conducive to providing solid results.
He’s also capable of playing on both sides of the ice, yet another positive point for teams looking to load up for a healthy Stanley Cup run. I can’t imagine any other defenceman offering more from an offensive standpoint for such a reasonable cost. In other words, the return could end up being very interesting, which is something we’re yet to discuss. It’s a little early to start targeting players, but in this case, a young defenceman ready to play in the NHL would be the ideal return, as a first-round pick would only be useful in a different trade to acquire an NHL-ready player.
Then there’s the matter of the Canadiens having incredibly low odds to make the playoffs this season. Keeping Matheson beyond the trade deadline feels like it would fall within the realm of poor asset management, similar to how Kent Hughes held onto Josh Anderson for much too long, missing out on an opportunity to maximize his asset value.
Moving a good player who is from Montreal, speaks French, and wants to play for the Canadiens is a tough pill to swallow for some, and as a proud Francophone, I understand why. Representation matters, but not to the point that you should shy away from moving a player if a team offers a suitable return. Besides, the general manager and the coach both speak French, and they’re the ones doing most of the communicating with the local community.
Simply put, we can’t ignore what he brings to the table, but those very same positive points are why many teams would be interested in trading for the 30-year-old defenceman.
All signs point to this being the right season to pull the trigger on a Matheson trade.
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No way they should trade him. He’s a gem, and a leader for Hutson, g
Guile, et al. He loves it here and we like having him here.
Its gotta happen
Hutsons already at by age 20 what took Matheson until age 26
Ghule’s benefitted GREATLY from Matheson who made him a top 15 SB last year.
NYR is looking to dump Trouba who has a full NMC so handcuffed them to the point the media and fans are starting to be vocal about his need to leave.”Trouba cost us Kreider now?” is something i see a lot since Krieders name surfaced in trade speculations by analysts like Friedman
IF he’d come to MTL tho he’d fill a need playing less then Savard or Matheson giving the youth the minutes while adding that Grit factor. No one will cheap shot Hutson if lets say Trouba’s beside him. Then again even if he’s not They Wont Mess with him if Trouba’s on the bench cause he’s Alexi Emelin who sent messages with bone breaking hits.
We need a guy like that to play with Xhekaj ideally though
If he’s playing above there it means Barron, Struble, Mailloux, Reinbacher, and Engstrom a;; failed to step up and seize the opportunity.
Totally agree Mtl needs another tough guy (with skill) to assist Xhekaj in carrying the pugilistic load. However, I can’t see Trouba agreeing to come to Mtl. His wife is completing her medical internship in NY, he’s not a fan of Canada, let alone Quebec, higher taxes, etc. So I can’t see him moving his NMC for Mtl. The guy we need (and we may have to wait til free agency to get him) is Mathieu Olivier. He would thrive in Mtl.
Respect for showing a more Professional POV on what most of us hope.
While i like Matheson who’s top 5 in Minutes and top 10 in blocked shots in the nhl yearly.
I cannot just pretend he’s that far ahead of Hutson… He’s surprisingly not.
You can say that Hutson isnt as good defensively , true but he’s not far off
That he’s a cost goals with blown Rushes or Pinches? I can name the games Matheson cost us going back to him destroying Jake Allens hot start last year but scoring a goal directly on him then letting his guy score 3 more times that period. God love Matheson you could see him feeling down saying something to Allen.Who actually just seemed supportive and shrugging it off despite being pulled after like 16 minutes?
So the question in my mind becomes
Come Playoffs who do i prefer LD top 4
Matheson
Huston
Or
Hutson
Ghule
IMO in a competitive Playoff situation
I want Lane Hutson and Kaiden Ghule
They’re Proven guys at all levels and leadership types doing it.
They got complementary styles that more then make up for Mathesons loss
If this happens though either Savard has to be re-signed shot term
If he wont then we should acquire a Luke Schenn type just for Depth support
I love Matheson, but i choose Hutson and no it cant be both
Why? Cause Ghules the Foundation we’re just talking about the Face of the Dcore.
No one’s every doubted Ghule’s the top 4 Work Horse you NEED for a Cup Run
He himself was 5 positions back of Matheson for Blocked shots last year at 14 in the NHL
Trigger has to be pulled cause Engstrom’s not F’ing around in Laval
He wont be held down long and pushed a non playoff team the year before
To a SHL Finals appearance with a similar ending to MTL vs TBL in 2021 sadly
But he seems to be benefit a lot from Coach Vincent who uses him on LD and RD a lot seemingly to control match ups which is clever(as Engstrom is a LH RD he prefers)
Too many Great Offense D coming for Matheson to stay playing 25+ minutes here
Trade him for any deal that doesnt bring back a D unless they’re RHD Vets with 1-2 years term maximum
Kaiden Guhle is better than Matheson and Hutson, why did St. Louis take so long to put him back on the left side. I am wondering about some of his coaching decisions.
… because we’ve consistently been short on RD, particularly those who can play higher in the lineup. Putting Guhle on the right so he can grow accustomed to it, providing flexibility down the road, is much better to do when the team isn’t expected to win, as opposed to experimenting when we’re supposed to be contending. It allowed Guhle to learn new things. It allowed other players to slide into their ideal roles. Matheson has been vocal in the past about not liking the right side. Soooo altogether, it just made sense to do. Now that it appears to be a reason for Guhle’s injuries, it makes sense to move back.
I feel like people go out of their way to complain about MSL. He’s far from perfect, but this is really not something to criticize. It was a choice that made sense for several reasons. It just had an outcome that wasn’t ideal, but also isn’t common and therefore not really expected. Now he’s switched them back…. Really no big deal
I love Matheson, and have been a vocal supporter of his since he got here. I’m not keen on moving him, but it would depend on the return obviously. One thing is for certain, I absolutely would not want another Dman back in the trade. It would have to be a young, elite top 6 forward with size and snarl that could pique my interest. We’re accumulating some skilled players for our top 6, but our most skilled guys are also the smallest ones. We’re going to need more beasts to make it out of the Atlantic division and through 4 rounds of playoff wars.
Great article! I see his situation precisely as you describe it. I like this player, and I’m not opposed to keeping him, but I would prefer the significant yield he’d likely produce in a trade.
Think of all the bubble teams that he could help get over the hump or the contenders looking for that puck mover with pace. What would yzerman pay? Larkin has publically stated his desperation for the playoffs. They have some assets of interst as does Buffalo who is right there with them. Maple leafs are in need, and could benefit greatly by adding pace to the back end. Panthers lost Montour and haven’t been the same without that type of blue liner. Bruins will get more desperate if the stay in uncertainty, McAvoy isn’t getting it done and Tampa has a void from sergechevs departure. Kings are sick and tired of getting beat by the oilers. Lot if pressure points Hughes can work to get a haul.
It’s a business and asset management is critical as you rightly scribed. He’s the best trade piece of non core guys that we have. Eventually he leaves, timing and return are the variables.
Unless there’s an outstanding return, I’d wait another season before letting Matheson go, and then, only if the team is still a seller. For me, an outstanding return now would need to be a one-for-one trade involving a younger established NHL player with significant upside (top-line potential) who has not yet reach his full potential, but can already be seen as a solid top-6 forward for the Canadiens, ideally a center; or a prospect with a clear star potential.
Asset management must also take into account who we have and who compete for each position. For now, we have Suzuki and Caufield who are two established top-line players for the Canadiens; thus two sure top-6 forwards, including a center. Slakowsky too should be there eventually despite his recent struggle. I haven’t thrown the towel for Dach, but he has not yet proven that he can take the #2 center position yet. Laine is a question mark, but we know he has the potential to be a top-6 winger. Newhook has shown promising thing last season, but I see him as a middle-6 forward. Then, we have plenty of prospects including Demidov (a potential superstar), Hage (a top prospect playing in the NCAA), Roy and Heineman, etc.. While the last three could be seen as middle-6 forwards, they have top-6 potential. There’s no need to trade for just adding one more to this list of potential suiters; I’d want a forward who is a sure thing and would raise the bar for being considered top-6 potential for the Canadiens.
Otherwise, I prefer keeping Matheson and see how our current assets develop. Our needs by next season could be significantly different.
Not sure what Montreal would get for trading Matheson as Ottawa only got a 33 yr old veteran and a 3rd rounder for Jakob Chychrun who is now 26 yrs old and is having a tremendous 2024 so far.. Then again Ottawa has been incredibly stupid with such things as letting Stone get away etc.etc. so can’t really judge an offensive defenseman’s trade value based on an incompetent GM like Ottawa has and has had… but if Mtl can get a solid return for Matheson they should take it… Buy low/sell high..