Canadiens Analysis
Canadiens Run New Lines At Practice Following Frustrating Loss
Montreal Canadiens head coach Martin St-Louis decided to mix things up following the team’s embarrassing 8-2 loss at the hands of the Seattle Kraken on Tuesday night.
The one-sided scoreline was unflattering to the effort provided by the Habs, and the biggest issue in the loss was the poor play of Samuel Montembeault, and to a lesser extent Cayden Primeau, however, in the grand scheme of things, the defensive lapses and lack of offensive chemistry have given way to a chaotic situation in which the majority of the team is struggling to find its rhythm in all three zones.
Defensive Changes
The Habs announced defenceman Logan Mailloux was re-assigned to the AHL, and will join the Laval Rocket in short order. Statistically speaking, it’s the right move, as Kaiden Guhle will provide the team with a better option in the defensive zone. It was clear that Mailloux was a little overwhelmed at times, par for the course when we consider he’s a rookie, but we shouldn’t overlook his ability to get his shots through traffic.
Mailloux leads all defencemen this season with 5.6 shots per 60 at 5v5, and for a team that struggles to create shooting opportunities, that’s certainly a plus. To give you a frame of reference, forward Nick Suzuki has generated 5.7 shots per 60. In other words, Mailloux does a good job helping his team at one of the most crucial aspects of winning any game: taking shots. Unfortunately, when he’s on the ice, the opposition also takes a lot of shots as well, which mitigates a lot of his impact.
I’d also venture to suggest the team’s hybrid defensive system is not helping young defencemen such as Mailloux, or Lane Hutson. It’s very similar to the system put in place by Dominique Ducharme a few years ago, and unsurprisingly, history is repeating itself. Dropping from zone to man-to-man on the fly can work on paper, but it requires perfect execution, and a single mistake derails the entire setup.
Montreal Canadiens Forward Lines
Top Line: Cole Caufield – Nick Suzuki – Emil Heineman
St-Louis opted to give one a spot on the first line to Emil Heineman, who has quietly put together solid underlying numbers to start the season. Beyond his ability to score goals, which is rumoured to be important in hockey games, when he’s on the ice, the Canadiens do a pretty good job controlling the momentum. At it stands, Heineman has done the best job of any forward on the team when it comes to his shot share, which is above 50 percent. Every other forward on the team is lagging behind him, with many sitting below 40 percent shot share. Of course, playing on the top line is very different from playing on the fourth line, as it will lead to Heineman playing against much better opponents, but the bump in his quality of linemates is more significant from a statistical standpoint.
Emil Heineman doesn’t have the same scoring touch as Cole Caufield, who currently leads the NHL in goals, but I’d venture as far as saying his shot is almost as good as Caufield’s, and that his release may even be faster, but he has not gotten as many opportunities to put it to good use for the Canadiens.
SNIPE by Heineman in the shootout: pic.twitter.com/5hibiP0cCI
— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) October 20, 2024
Second Line: Juraj Slafkovsky – Kirby Dach – Oliver Kapanen
Removing Dach from the top line was inevitable, but it should be noted they produced very good underlying numbers together. Unfortunately, it’s quite clear neither Oliver Kapanen nor Alex Newhook can fill in for Dach at centre, which points to a clear lack of depth down the middle of the ice. Regardless, this is an interesting combination as you have a fair amount of size, skill, and intelligence at play.
That being said, despite Kapanen receiving much more praise than his rookie counterpart, Heineman, the numbers suggest it should be the other way around. Again, playing as a rookie is always difficult in the NHL, especially if you’re used in a fourth-line role, as they both were earlier in the year, but it’s starting to become apparent that Kapanen needs a little more time before he can make a significant positive impact in the NHL. Using him on the second line should give the team the complete picture, especially now that he’s not tasked with the defensive responsibilities that come with playing as a centre, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes the year in Sweden, with Timra IK. Joshua Roy is a much better option up front, both when it comes to his offensive and defensive value.
Joshua Roy’s goal tonight.. Can we get this kid back up in MTL please? I think It’s time to unleash Wawa.#GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/Q494yyuUrU
— Hockey Junkie (@HockeyJunkieYT) October 26, 2024
Third Line: Alex Newhook – Christian Dvorak – Joel Armia
Fourth Line: Josh Anderson – Jake Evans – Brendan Gallagher
The bottom six features one line that has shown solid chemistry this season, and one full of players who haven’t managed to carve out a role on the team.
Full marks to Jake Evans, Brendan Gallagher, and yes, Josh Anderson. They’re working hard to help the team win, and though there’s limited talent at play, they provide an honest effort every night, which is important for a team that has a tendency to fade down the stretch.
As for Alex Newhook, Christian Dvorak, and Joel Armia, they’ll have to prove they can help the team win in some manner if they’re to be included in the plans moving forwards. During 5v5 play, Newhook has one goal, Armia has two assists, while Dvorak has been held off the scoresheet all season long. That’s almost 11 million dollars, or nearly 13 percent of the salary cap spent on three players who get outshot, outchanced, and outscored on a regular basis.
As much as the changes to the top six were warranted, as long as the Canadiens feature one line that is a black hole of both possession and salary cap expenditures, the team will continue to struggle when it comes to controlling the most important aspects of most games.
Very happy to see Heineman get his shot with the big boys. Not that I want to see Slafkovsky off that line long term, but I hope Emil can capitalize on the opportunity unlike Ylönen couldn’t. If we can prove that this guy can score consistently with top linemates, it’ll hopefully secure his future with the club. His shot is a laser!
This was never going to be a playoff team this year. Since we were likely never making the playoffs, I’d rather lose a few more games with the kids like kapanen and heineman getting legit opportunities to learn and shine, than still miss playoffs but have a few extra points in the standings with the vets getting more opportunities.
With that said, I actually think moving the kids up gives us a better chance to win, so we might actually get both benefits (more winning AND better development). Each of the top 2 lines has 2 strong players who can help the kid they’re with. It has the chance to go quite well. But we’ll see.
Dvorak and armia can’t get off this team soon enough. Obviously don’t pay to move them cuz this isn’t a contention year, and we can eat their salaries, but my goodness are they awful. Newhook looked good with certain players last year, maybe if Roy comes back, and Laine, it’ll shuffle things around enough that Newhook can play with younger, higher upside players.
I just can’t wait for this team to be mostly the new kids. It’ll still be rough for a bit, they will make mistakes, have a lot to learn. But they just have so much more upside and offense than many of our vets right now, while some are also great defensively. It sucks losing, but there are spurts of GREAT play. There legit could be a point where Hage, Roy, and Beck/Mesar/Newhook/Kapanen/Heineman etc are the freaking THIRD line. There are combos with these names that make a very strong defensive line with top 6 type offense… not the case with Dvorak/Armia/Evans/Anderson etc… (though evans has been good thus far and gally, I’ll always love). It’s just a matter of being patient and letting the kids learn.
Again, just about patience. Personally, I think improvement from the kids who will be sticking around is more important than overall team improvement. I think for the most part, that’s happening. Though it’s obviously not great to keep getting blown out, for both the standings and development.
I agree with the projection of Kapanen going home to finish the year, where he will have the opportunity to apply the learnings from his time here. He was scoring a lot over there so it’ll be interesting to watch for progression. I think Beck can at least equally fill the role Oliver was tasked with being as fast and responsible plus he’s bigger and better on the draw and he cant score less…
I also agree Roy is the best bet to play on the second unit although I think his ultimate destination with be line three but he should be able to slide up and down the top 9 seamlessly.
Not much ink being spilled on Newhook lately but he’s been unproductive on the stat and score sheet. He’s been dropped to the third line now and I suspect he will lose powerplay minutes too, near term. It’s important to recognize that the objective is development and also determining the best role for guys once the roster is more established when Hage and Ivan arrive and Laine is healthy. Plus add Beck, Roy Kapanen and, Florian etc etc to the mix and some current jobs will be lost, but that’s not exactly news.I hope Emil forces his way up the lineup and gets powerplay time so we can really see what we have
Finally props to Xhekaj on his two best games of the year. Yes, costly errors both games but he was skating, shooting( first slap shot of the year from recollection) , engaging offensively plus his normal physical dominance.
Xhekaj has his two best games of the year, and St. Louis looks to be sitting him out for the Washington game. And now the coach is publicly critical of Caufield. Team’s leading scorer, but coach Marty has to find a fault. Man. Somebody please pull this guy aside for a quiet chat.
Kirby Dach has the worst +/- in the NHL at -12 which would work out for a full season at that rate to -98!
He will need the whole year to fully recover from ACL surgery. Too much time lost not being able to use his legs.
So, what’s your point? He ripped both his ACL and MCL. Cut the guy some slack.
Arber Xhekaj Third line Left Wing.
Now that’s thinking outside the box. I’ve suggested that before Mtl ever thinks of trading Xhekaj, they try him up front. It’s been done in the past. Gainey, Chartraw, Roberts, and others, have played both D and up front.
Beck is playing excellent hockey and belongs in the NHL. I don’t think he has much of anything to learn in Laval.
Hutson or Matheson could play the right side opposite any of the others. Either is better than the rest of the RD, all the LD deserve to play and Guhle would be both more effective and safer on his strong side. Savard has no business playing big minutes.
It is time to put Dvorak in the Press Box. On more than 1 occasion this Season, he has gone 0 shots on goal and 0 hits in a game. (Also below 40% on Face Offs) Not an NHL standard for sure. Time to bring Roy back up and get him on the 3rd line. Keep Newhook at Centre on the 3rd line and Evans at Centre on the 4th line. At some point Dvorak may have to go on waivers, he just doesnt look like an engaged NHL player at this point in the Season with the Habs!
Heineman loves to play a physical game so the coaches do not have to remind him to be more physical. If he can avoid getting foolish penalties and get some goals and assists he can be a good fit. But if he does not score any points then I would put him back on the third or second line. First line players need to put some points on the board.
Habs need to get tough and cut their losses on a few assets, trade or waive a player or 3. Too many passengers. At some point, management will lose the respect of the players by being too considerate and worried about optics. If you are going to lose, you might as well be giving ice time to players that are part of the future.