Montreal Canadiens
State Of Conditions Tied To Canadiens’ Sean Monahan Trade
When the Montreal Canadiens acquired Sean Monahan from the Calgary Flames, they also secured a conditional first-round draft pick that comes into play this season.
NHL betting odds currently have the Canadiens pegged to finish in the bottom-10, but the fate of the Calgary Flames will also be important to follow.
That’s because, depending on where Calgary finishes in the standings this season, the Canadiens could either end up with the Flames’ or the Florida Panthers‘ 2025 1st.
As Kent Hughes and former Flames GM Brad Treliving created the most convoluted trade condition tree in the history of the NHL, they also managed to rope in Florida’s 2025 1st into the mix; previously acquired in the blockbuster Matthew Tkachuk trade that went down just a month earlier in July 2022.
The trade saw Florida send Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar and a conditional 2025 1st-round pick in order to nab Matthew Tkachuk out of Calgary, but, prior to finalizing the trade, the Panthers put lottery protection on their 1st-round pick.
That means that if Florida’s 1st-rounder in 2025 is a lottery pick (1st or 2nd overall), the Calgary Flames would instead be given Florida’s 2026 1st-round pick as compensation, and Florida would retain its 2025 1st-round pick.
You still with me here? Because that was the easy part.
Here’s what you need to know to follow the Sean Monahan trade and the conditions attached to Calgary’s 2025 1st-round pick this season:
1. If Calgary Owns Florida’s 2025 First-Round Pick
As of right now, both the Flames and Panthers have gotten off to strong starts, but a lot can change over the length of a season.
If Calgary ends the 2024-2025 season with Florida’s 2025 1st-round pick, the conditions change based on where Calgary’s and Florida’s 2025 picks fall:
- If Both Calgary and Florida’s 2025 Picks are Outside the Top 10: Montreal will receive the earlier of Calgary’s or Florida’s 2025 first-round pick.
- If Calgary’s Pick is in the Top 10 and Florida’s is Outside: Montreal will receive Florida’s 2025 first-round pick.
If these conditions are not met, or if Calgary does not acquire Florida’s pick, Montreal proceeds to the next set of conditions below:
2. If Calgary Does Not Own Florida’s 2025 First-Round Pick
In the event where Florida takes a once-in-a-lifetime nosedive in the standings and walks out of the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery with one of the first two picks in the 2025 NHL Draft, here’s how the scenario unfolds:
- If Calgary’s 2025 Pick is Outside the Top 10: Montreal will receive Calgary’s 2025 first-round pick.
- Additional Condition: If Florida’s 2025 first-round pick (owned by another NHL team) is also outside the Top 10 and ranks better than Calgary’s pick, Montreal will also get Calgary’s 2025 fourth-round pick.
- If Calgary’s 2025 Pick is in the Top 10:
- Montreal receives Calgary’s 2025 first-round pick unless Calgary wins the first overall draft pick.
- Exception: If Calgary’s pick is first overall, Calgary will retain the pick, and Montreal instead receives Calgary’s 2025 third-round pick and a conditional 2026 first-round pick.
- This 2026 pick will be the better of Calgary’s or Florida’s 2026 first-round picks, if Calgary still holds Florida’s pick.
Ideal Scenario for Montreal Canadiens?
With the way the Flames have been playing of late, and the long list of unrestricted free agents they currently have, things could get very interesting throughout the season. But it’s also worth noting that the Panthers have lost some very important pieces from the Stanley Cup contending team, especially on defence.
The best scenario for the Montreal Canadiens would be Florida falling off a cliff and finishing in the bottom-10, but not win the lottery in May 2025. However, the more likely scenario would see the Calgary Flames come back down to Earth, after a hot start, and finish with the 11th overall pick (since a bottom-10 finish would assure the Canadiens of Florida’s 2025 1st-round pick instead).
The Canadiens could either use the pick they ultimately receive to draft another young prospect with potential, like Michael Hage, Owen Beck or Oliver Kapanen; or make a trade for an established right-shot defenceman.
Many possibilities remain, but there still remains a lot of hockey to be played, and, after reading this, a lot of Advil to be consumed.
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So I’m not doubting anything you’ve said, just asking for clarification.
Various sources online define a lottery pick as any pick that takes part in the draft lottery.
Puckpedia also says that if the Florida pick is top 10 in 2025, Calgary will get the pick in 2026 instead
Can you explain where you got the notion that Florida’s pick will only get transferred to Calgary in 2026 if the pick in 2025 is top 2? I could very well be misunderstanding the stuff online but it seems like it gets pushed back a year if it’s top 10 in 2025, not top 2 (Puckpedia). Or, if you go by the general definition I’ve found everywhere, it’s basically just if they miss the playoffs, because then they take part in the lottery (though I’d trust Puckpedia more than this general definition being applied to the trade)
Also, the way you’ve written it doesn’t make sense. The second section says:
“In the event where Florida takes a once-in-a-lifetime nosedive in the standings and walks out of the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery with one of the first two picks in the 2025 NHL Draft, here’s how the scenario unfolds:“
But then further down it says: “… additional condition: if Floridas pick is outside the top 10”
The pick can’t be both a top 2 pick AND outside the top 10…. Just wondering if I’m misreading or if there’s an issue
Thanks for any clarification you can provide.
I don’t want to advertise your competitors on your site as I think you’re the best habs site by far. But I will say, other sites also say that the Florida pick gets bumped to 2026 if it’s top 10, not top 2.
The overall conclusions have always been the same: the best the habs can do is 1st OA in 2026, or up to 2nd OA in 2025. But out of the likely scenarios, the best would be 11th OA in 2025. I say this because it’s unlikely that Florida misses the playoffs. So if Calgary can be bad but not atrocious, they get the 11th OA and give to us.
Personally, I just hope we can get a surefire, top line, ideally right shot defender because as AMAZING as our young defender are, there’s lots of questions (Guhle injures, Hutson size, both are LHD, then Reinbacher injuries and ceiling l, and Mailloux defending). Yea I think three of them have top pair ceilings, and one has a superstar ceiling, but they may not hit those ceilings. Considering the top 6 forward talent we have (I can’t believe I’m saying that lol) the right side of our defense is the biggest need. After that, I’d want a top Center as yes, Dach can maybe still fill that role, but again, injuries are an issue. So a little insurance would be nice.
I know you shouldn’t draft for need, but with the ppl available in this draft, and where these picks could fall, getting best player available could also fill our needs. It’s unlikely we fill both, but possible. Fingers crossed!!
(Yes I know goalies are voodoo and Fowler looks amazing but may not work out so insurance would be nice, but we’re not spending top 15 picks on a goalie when we have Fowler and other pressing issues).
These have been the conditions since day one. The idea behind it all was to ensure that the Flames would always be giving us the lesser of those 2 picks. It’s a bit convoluted, but Puckpedia has no doubt simplified it, as it’s incredibly unlikely the Panthers will be a lottery team.
With all due respect, he has the conditions listed differently than both Puckpedia and other outlets. They say that Florida keeps the puck if it’s top 10, NOT if it’s top 2.
Also, the way he has them listed simply don’t make sense. Floridas pick can’t be both a top 2 pick and a pick outside the top ten. There’s an error somewhere. Likely more than one. Now, it’s possible the error for the OTHER things is in the other sources, and that this article has them correct. But, it seems like the error for the pick simultaneously being top 2 AND outside top 10 is unique to this article.
Here’s hoping they provide clarification.
Overall though, the likely options are clearly correct as the best scenario that’s actually likely is 11th OA
But yeah, there are clear errors somewhere
No, Marco is only an occasional writer, you have it right. On the D note, I feel Guhles, DR and Hutson, with both their floors and potential ceilings, are positive assets, but Id rank LM in a quite different category, as at this present time, I feel he just does not have the D zone awereness and mental IQ that would help him progress to being a decent NHL’er from a D perspective. Sure his offensive skills are superior, but I fear, even if he improves, his FLOOR as a D with liability in his own end is pretty low,
100000% agree that a top 4 RHD is the highest present need for our team’s roster strength to improve and balance out. Until 3 years from now, when we’ll have a good idea how DR is, (IMO, slam dunk top 4 RHD), and by then, LM is on the team, because he developed into serviceable on the D, or has been part of a trade package.
Me thinks Kent Hughes, from here to next summer or Fall, is going to shake and bake a way to add a strong D at the top of our Roster.
Agree, our Offense, especially top 9, especially if LAine extends, is set for a long time to come, and will be top 10, likely top 5 in the NHL 2-3 seasons from now.
Laine and Demi are PPG players, (Demi maybe ++ after a few seasons), Dach will come back to at least a 50-60 ppg player, and with decent linemates, Newhook is a 25/25+, and WHo knows how HAge might turn out, but it’s promising, and perhaps Roy and Mesar mix in to make for an offensively strong 3rd line.
Very excited about our future as far ar O is concerned, just need to strengthen our D, depth is fine and kids will develop, but for our team to jump a few levels up next season, D needs a big shot in the arm, 2 to 3 of Arber Struble, Barron or LM are not the answer.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we traded this pick and passed the headache along to someone else. I just hope that Hughes adds a ton of conditions to the pick just so everyone’s brain explodes trying to figure it all out. 😂
Since when is a 1st round pick a headache?
It’s not. I’m making a joke about all the insane conditions on the pick. Having said that, I still wouldn’t be surprised if it was used as trade bait at some point this season.
Funny, but with Barron, Mailloux, and Reinbacher all in the fold I see zero need for a “top 4 right shot defenceman.” Had they kept Kovacevic, we wouldn’t be talking about this in all likelihood. Yeah, things aren’t great back there right now, but look at all the young defencemen. Once Guhle returns, this won’t be such an issue.
If Hughes buckles to media pressure to improve the team it would be a mistake. The team is in only year 3 of their 5 year plan. I say this with confidence, or why else would Hughes only offer 2 year deals last July, or go after a player like Laine with that exact term remaining?
Yes, it would be nice to be better out there, but i for one strongly believe that we need another top 5 pick.
Oh, and watching Mitchkov play, anybody still think taking a defenceman 5th overall was a good idea?
Michkov was never going to play anywhere in the NHL but Philadelphia, so yeah, taking Reinbacher 5th was the exact right choice.
Hey there fellow Tony. Agree.
I think proceeding on the assumption that the oft injured guhle and reinbacher are surefire top pair guys on a cup contender is very risky. At their ceilings they are, but not every prospect hits their ceilings, and they’ve both missed a lot of development time. Hutson can certainly make up for that by becoming a superstar, but again, that one guy and we have to hope he truly hits (I think he will). Mailloux does not have top pair upside. Legit 2nd pair and pp2? Absolutely, but he has a ways to go and top pair defensive responsibilities, even if he is a bit better than ppl think, just likely aren’t in his future.
I would absolutely want another surefire, top pair RHD prospect. We are currently hoping EVERY D prospect hits their ceiling to round out a contending top 4. I just don’t think banking on that is wise. Another piece would be nice.
As for Michkov, no one knew more about him than habs brass with bobrov and his dad. Maybe some teams, but I doubt there were many. If they passed it’s for a reason and considering how great they’ve been at drafting, I trust them. It’s obviously not the Russian factor as they’ve taken several Russian players including Demidov. Also, they likely don’t take demidov if they have Michkov. As much as you want best player available, no GM is spending 3 straight top 5 picks on wingers, the easiest position to fill. And honestly, demidov looks more complete, has nearly double the P/60 than Michkov had last year, yes it’s a poor stat but his +/- is great, he can play C and is bigger. Slaf, Cole, Suzy, laine, Dach, demidov, Hage, michkov… all top 6 potential. No way we can fit or afford them all. They obviously wouldn’t have this group if they had Michkov so subtract a couple of you want him. If the choice is Michkov or demidov, I’m taking demidov atp even if he has like 10 fewer nhl games lol. PLUS the fact we have reinbacher who could very well top out as the perfect complement to Hutson? I think they chose well. Who would we take last year instead? Parekh? Another nearly pure offence guy who would need to take touches from Hutson? Yakemchuk? Whom most ppl dragged the sens for taking? Maybe Buium or Dickinson but both are LHD leaving a gaping hole still
I think things worked out very well for both talent and need. The fact that now it’s kinda just “get some insurance picks for RD and C” is pretty awesome.
Superb post and spot on in every way. Do you post on HEOTP? If so, I’m LafleurLaneLaine over there.
Naw, I can’t agree with you here Too many assumptions. See my post above.
And also agree with Tony, any discussion about Michkov is a mute point, rehashed, and for the right reasons at the time, Habs made the right call with DR. The bacd luck of a poor team then Injuries delaying DR’s development could not have been predicted.
And contending teams need balance, Top 4 RHD’s are a lot rarer than Top 3 ppg forwards, of which, we have and will soon have more than enough of.
To build a contending team, give me a potential Larry Robinson light over a Pierre Larouche any day and twice on Sunday.
Such conditions should not be valid. They put the draft itself into a state of flux -with no one knowing who picks when – and encourage perpetual negotiation or outright inertia. Pull the trigger and/or move on. It’s healthier.