Xhekaj Extension Could Be Missed Opportunity For Habs

A quiet summer gave way to some rare news on Tuesday, as the Montreal Canadiens signed defenceman Arber Xhekaj to a two-year contract extension that carries a $2.6 million price tag, which means his deal’s annual average value (AAV) is $1.3 million.

Much has been said about Xhekaj’s value to the team, as some have suggested it’s very easy to replace a third-pairing defenceman, while others have expressed some concern as to his limited potential.

Before we dig into the numbers, let me say that finding a player who can fill in on the third pairing is indeed easy, but finding a defenceman who will put together excellent third-pairing minutes is not as easy as some may assume. A quick look across the league will reveal a bevy of third-pairing defencemen who get caved in during most shifts, but very few who actually help their team control the shots and scoring chances while they’re on the ice. We also have to be realistic as to his potential. No, probably won’t win a Norris Trophy, but the mere fact that he has already proven he can handle NHL minutes is a significant boon for the Habs, and we should be mindful not to look a gift horse in the mouth.

Remember, Xhekaj was not drafted in the OHL, nor did he hear his name called by any of the teams participating in NHL Entry Drafts. Historically, that meant he would have very poor odds of eventually playing in the NHL, let alone earning a job with the Canadiens after his first training camp. Sure, circumstances helped Xhekaj carve out a spot, but we must remain conscious that no other defenceman in the history of the OHL has gone undrafted only to earn a job in the NHL immediately after they graduate from the league. If anything, we should be celebrating that Xhekaj is a unique player who defied the odds by making hockey history.

We tend to always want a young player to take the next step in the lineup, but that mentality eventually leads to players being pushed into situations that are overwhelming.

It’s the Peter Principle: People in a hierarchy tend to rise to “a level of respective incompetence”: employees are promoted based on their success in previous jobs until they reach a level at which they are no longer competent, as skills in one job do not necessarily translate to another.

I’m not suggesting Xhekaj will never become a top four defenceman, but there’s no point in getting frustrated with a player doing well in specific situations. That’s how good teams become great teams, strong contributions from every position.

On the flip side, some Xhekaj boosters have missed the forest for the trees.

Let’s be honest, the last few decades have been rough on fans, especially when it comes to the lack of physical play in the lineup. It’s one thing to lose when you don’t have enough talent, but it’s another to lose the physical battles throughout those frustrating seasons. Xhekaj’s presence in the lineup went a long way in removing the thick veneer of physical insecurity that resulted from the last 30 or so years.

But we should not simply reduce him to a fighter who forces players like Ryan Reaves to spend more minutes with the media attempting to desperately justify why they lost the fight than the time they actually spent on the ice that night.

WATCH: Arber Xhekaj Steals Zack Kassian’s Soul

Sure, it’s entertaining to watch him push Reaves around like a chaotic cat casually shoving things off a ledge for its own amusement, but the underlying numbers prove Xhekaj brings more value to the Habs when he’s on the ice. I’d go as far as saying he should probably reduce the number of fights in which he participates to as close to zero as possible, but I don’t want to invoke the ire of fans who suffered through the seasons in which Jan Bulis, Joe Juneau, and Andreas Dackell were one of the team’s best trios.

Guess who? pic.twitter.com/fVXwzgpCxp

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) September 17, 2022

Proper Arber Xhekaj Montreal Canadiens Analysis

Again, when evaluating Xhekaj we have to keep usage in mind. I can hear the screams of a thousand cynical fans saying he was sheltered. And they’re right. But taking such a simplistic approach to analyzing hockey isn’t just lazy, it’s also throwing the baby out with the bath water. The usage was sheltered to a certain extent, but no other player in the lineup managed to produce such excellent numbers while enjoying the same type of sheltering. You can’t criticize a player for something he doesn’t control, such as his usage. What matters most is the player thriving in that usage, which is exactly what Xhekaj did.

At this point, I’m starting to wax poetically about Xhekaj’s value to the organization, but I defy anyone to take an honest look at what he has done in his short time in the NHL and come to the conclusion that he’s just another third-pairing defenceman, because it’s simply not true.

Every NHL scout I have the pleasure of speaking to will quickly complain that they’ve been given marching orders to find their very own Xhekaj, a virtually impossible task given what he brings to the table for the Canadiens fans, his teammates, and most importantly, his head coach.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

Even if he signed the type of contract we predicted he would two months ago, I would have looked into the possibility of a longer contract extension. Two years is a safe bet when it comes to mitigating short-term risk, but given his unique skill set, gambling on a slightly longer deal feels like it would have also been a safe bet.

At the very least, the Canadiens now have two more years to establish his long-term potential and fit with the team. But there’s a risk the next contract for the player the team labelled a unicorn could impact the Canadiens’ salary cap situation significantly.

Arber Xhekaj shoots THROUGH the net. pic.twitter.com/ESsltMpR4e

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) October 8, 2023