Canadiens Contracts: Finding Comparables For Guhle’s Extension

Now that the Montreal Canadiens have extended 20-year-old forward Juraj Slafkovsky to an eight-year contract that carries a rich $7.6 million annual average value (AAV), the most pressing issue is on the blue line, as defenceman Kaiden Guhle is also eligible for a contract extension.

We shouldn’t expect the new contract to be announced in the very near future, as general manager Kent Hughes suggested both parties started much further apart than they did in the Slafkovsky negotiations.

“It’s not always about taking care of things quickly,” he explained, “But rather, the right way. We didn’t start at the same place as we did with Slaf[kovsky], but the objective is finding a contract that we can all agree on this summer. If not, we’ll wait, as we did with Cole [Caufield]. We have plenty of time to find a solution.”

The issue is a little more complicated because unlike Slafkovsky, Guhle is yet to finish the season on a high note. Injuries and difficult assignments have led to relatively poor underlying numbers, though it’s only fair to suggest his defensive partners have left a little something to be desired. By all logic, using him alongside a defensive partner that is in his statistical prime should improve Guhle’s possession numbers, but it is far from a guarantee.

There have been glimpses of brilliance, as Guhle has the tendency to run hot and cold for long stretches, and we also have to account for the fact that he’s been given a very stiff level of competition at a very young age in a fairly terrible lineup. Essentially, Guhle was lathered up in barbecue sauce and thrown to the wolves, while also being given a baptism by fire as he ran the gamut of challenges usually reserved for 10-year-veterans.

On most nights, the Canadiens’ overall performances mirrored Guhle’s, as a bad outing would lead to a blowout loss, whereas a good game from Guhle was usually enough to give the Habs a fighting chance. It’s probably unfair to put such pressure on a 22-year-old player, but now that Guhle and the Canadiens have entered into contract talks, there’s no going back. By using Guhle as often (and early) as they did, the Canadiens handed Guhle’s agent a significant amount of leverage.

Kaiden Guhle Contract Considerations

While Guhle’s underlying numbers are far from excellent, we should not that relative to his teammates, he still managed to produce a positive Expected Goals percentage (xGF%) last season. On that note, the only defensive partner that finished with a shot share (CF%) above 50 percent while playing with Guhle was none other than Johnathan Kovacevic, who was recently traded to the New Jersey Devils in exchange for a fourth-round pick.

While playing with Mike Matheson, the two only controlled 42 percent of the shots and 46 percent of the expected goals. But we should point out that Guhle was mostly playing on his off-side whenever he was paired with Matheson, who is far from a defensive specialist. Playing on your off-side is complicated for a litany of reasons, the most obvious of which is that it makes retrieving pucks and then quickly exiting the zone (with control) a lot more difficult and defending the rush a lot more complicated.

The Matheson-Guhle pairing is having a very hard time vs. Calgary.

3-0 Flames now. pic.twitter.com/6iVwigYXi5

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) March 17, 2024

But as we already established, that’s been the modus operandi when it comes to Guhle’s brief, yet busy time in the NHL. The Canadiens have given very little consideration when it comes to maximizing his potential impact on the ice. That’s not to say they’re actively attempting to lower his value, but he’s plugged a lot of holes on a defensive boat that was already struggling to stay afloat.

It’s particularly apparent when evaluating his production from the back end. Guhle has scored 10 goals and 30 assists in 114 games, a very respectable number given his lack of experience. What makes his production even more impressive is that he’s rarely used on the power play. Consequently, all 40 of Guhle’s points since entering the league have come at even-strength, which goes to show that despite the difficult usage, Guhle has managed to contribute an impressive amount of points from the blue line thanks to his outlet passes and his penchant for gaining access to the offensive zone with control of the puck.

For what it’s worth, Guhle was also the busiest player on the team at 5v5 last year, while he only trailed Matheson when it came to average ice time at even-strength.

Joel Armia has scored in 100% of his games this season.

Look at the great controlled entry by Kaiden Guhle. That’s the good stuff. pic.twitter.com/eYS8O62bAp

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) October 29, 2023

Finding Comparable Contracts For Kaiden Guhle

There aren’t a bevy of deals that align with what the Habs could end up offering Guhle. But if we base our projections on the percentage of the salary cap used in previous signings, we get a better idea of what to expect.

For example, when the Arizona Coyotes signed 22-year-old defenceman Jacob Chyrchrun to a contract extension in 2019, the six-year deal that carried an AAV of $4.6 million accounted for 5.8 percent of the salary cap. When we apply that percentage to the 2024-25 salary cap of $88 million, it comes out to $5.1 million per season.

But the most relevant deals that could serve as the framework for an extension were signed very recently. The Washington Capitals agreed to terms for a five-year extension with 23-year-old Rasmus Sandin, which also carried a $4.6 million AAV, however, seeing as it was signed in March, it accounted for 5.5 percent of the salary cap. The Blackhawks offered Alex Vlasic a six-year deal worth $4.6 million (are we sensing a theme, yet?), accounting for, yes, you guessed it, 5.5 percent of the salary cap.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks (Kaiden Guhle Edition)

There are other factors to consider. The Habs want to maintain a relatively rigid salary structure, as they’ve already invested heavily in their top three forwards, and there are other young defencemen that are hoping to receive healthy raises in the future. We also don’t know what type of term is being offered. All three of the contracts mentioned above brought the players to unrestricted free agency. There’s a possibility the Canadiens will offer a little more money in exchange for securing Guhle’s services for an additional year or two.

And then there are the injuries, but we also have to remember that Guhle was asked to do a lot for the Habs. He went all out on most nights, literally putting his body on the line in a desperate attempt to shut down some of the best players in the league. It would be unfair to suggest his value should be significantly lower due to his difficult usage, but we also have to be realistic about the possibility that he may miss more time going forward.

When it comes down to it, the Habs have a good, young defenceman that has already shown he has the potential to become a mainstay on the top pairing, while also fitting the age group of the rest of the core players that will be counted upon to lead the Canadiens out of the basement of the NHL standings.

With that in mind, expect Guhle’s contract extension to carry at least five or six years of term, while also accounting for roughly five or six percent of the salary cap at the time of the signing.

Do you agree or disagree with our assessment of the ideal contract offer to Kaiden Guhle? Let us know in the comments below!