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Montreal Canadiens 2024 Draft Pick Positions And NHLer Odds

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Montreal Canadiens NHL Draft - habs fans vote

The upcoming 2024 NHL Entry Draft will be very important for the Montreal Canadiens, as it may very well be the last time they’ll have an opportunity to be among the teams that own a top-five pick.

Overall, the draft is expected to be a good one for the Habs, as they’re heading into the weekend with a bevy of picks that equate to the second-most pre-draft value for the organization in the last 25 years.

And while it’s always encouraging to see the sum of the value of the picks, we also have to keep in mind that not all picks are created equally.


Montreal Canadiens 2024 Draft Positions

The Canadiens currently own 12 draft picks in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft: 5th, 26th (via Winnipeg), 57th (via Colorado), 70th, 78th (via Minnesota), 102nd, 130th (via San Jose), 134th, 166th, 198th, 210th (via Washington), and 224th overall (via Edmonton).

If we break it down to the rounds and cross-reference Byron Bader’s Hit Rate chart, we get a better picture of the odds involved with the aforementioned picks, including the percentage difference between drafting a forward or a defenceman.

In Bader’s study, forwards are considered NHLers if they play 200+ games and maintain a 0.7 points per game or more scoring rate throughout their careers. Defencemen are considered NHLers if they play 200+ games and maintain a 0.45 points per game or more scoring pace throughout their careers.

First Round – Forwards

5th overall – 91.3% chance the player in question will become an NHL player, with a 37.7 percent chance they’ll become a star.

26th overall – 56.3% chance to become an NHL player, with an 8.1% chance they’ll become a star.

First Round – Defencemen

5th overall – 94.4% NHLer, 27.8% star.

26th overall – 44.6% NHLer odds, 6.2% star.

As you can see, the discrepancy between the two picks owned by the Canadiens is quite evident. While their own pick at fifth overall has very good odds of becoming an impact player, Winnipeg’s 26th overall pick is a different story. The odds also improve if the Habs decide to pick a forward in both cases.

Remaining Montreal Canadiens picks

Second Round

57th overall – Forward: 32.8% NHLer, 3.9% star. Defenceman: 29.3% NHLer, 4.1% star.

Third Round

70th and 78th overall – Forward: 21.4% NHLer, 2.0% star. Defenceman: 18.8% NHLer, 1.7% star.

Fourth Round

102nd overall – Forward: 17.8% NHLer, 0.9% star. Defenceman: 16.5% NHLer, 1.9% star.

Fifth Round

130th and 134th overall – Forward: 12.5% NHLer, 0.7% star. Defenceman: 11.4% NHLer, 1.1% star.

Sixth Round

166th overall – Forward 14.2% NHLer. 1.2% star. Defenceman: 12.9% NHLer, 1.2% star.

Seventh Round

198th, 210th, and 224th overall – Forward: 10.5% NHLer. 0.7% star. Defenceman: 9.6% NHLer, 1.2% star.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

Byron’s hit rate chart reinforces the idea that quality significantly overshadows quantity at the draft. The Canadiens are almost guaranteed to get an NHL player from the fifth overall pick, with an outside chance they’ll become a star.

The 26th overall pick also carries good odds of becoming an NHLer player, but the odds they’ll become a star are much lower than picks made between 1st and 20th overall.

As for the remainder of the draft, second and third round picks hold some promise, but fans should not hold out hope they’ll turn into impact players. Fortunately, these are historical odds, which means there’s always a chance a team can buck the trend and find a diamond in the rough, as the Canadiens did when they picked Lane Hutson late in the second-round of the 2022 NHL Draft.

Simply put, we shouldn’t expect much talent from later rounds, but a good scouting team can improve the chances a team can find quality depth players once the first round is over.

montreal canadiens draft odds stars

 

(Draft hit-rate chart via Hockey Prospecting)

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mikeysl

it seems your article supports the notion of limiting the draft to 4 rounds.

Dana

Lane Hutson and Joshua Roy may both be capable of challenging star metrics based on their pedigree and early performance eye test. Byrons hit rate is a useful guideline as a measurement of past drafting (and development) performance.

Is there a predictive model as that would be a sensational data management application!

Tyrone

Supports what I’ve said all along… anything past the 2nd or 3rd round are just lottery tickets. That’s why I’ve been in favour of packaging tons of picks together in a massive quantity deal to swap for a quality player/pick. Tampa’s model of swapping a stack of picks to get the player you want is smart imo. That’s why I was willing to trade every single pick from last year and this year to Chicago for the #1 pick last year. Over 20 picks for 1 generational talent. On the surface it sounds crazy, but when you realize that the majority of those picks are pretty useless, what would you rather have? Lottery tickets or a sure thing to lead your franchise for the next 15yrs? It also helps alleviate the 50 contract crunch that we’re closing in on. Imagine swapping a stack of picks each year to walk away with a star player either from the draft or another team lacking depth in the prospect pool? Fill out the rest of your roster with free agents in a lower tier (everyone will want to sign with you too with the opportunity to play on a stacked team) and waiver pickups and see what happens. I’d love to try it with Gavin Mckenna in 2yrs.

morrisk

“Over 20 picks for 1 generational talent”…

That’s the most hilarious thing I’ve heard in a generation!

There’s a reason why no team has ever done that – and no team ever will.

2 examples:

B. Point and C. McDavid

While McDavid is the best player in the NHL, he has yet to win a cup. Because he can be shut down by a complete team in the playoffs and because he is so good, he commands too much of the cap % of his team – so you can’t go out and get additional top players. Next year is his tenth in the NHL – no cup through first 9.

B. Point was a late 3rd rd pick. No further discussion warranted.

Complete teams win cups nowadays, without a bunch of elite talent players. I don’t want a bunch of Celebrini’s on my team…I want a bunch of Verhaeghe’s on my team. My team will beat yours in the playoffs/cup series.

Tyrone

I’m not saying to build a team from scratch this way. I’m saying that from where we are in our rebuild right now, with what we already have, we don’t need to have another 20 prospects added to the pipeline. We need a few specific pieces. Elite pieces. Pieces that can score with regularity. Top of the draft difference makers. We don’t need 20 more Mesars, Guindons, Kidneys, Farrells, Tourignys, etc. If we can add a couple of star players to the squad we have, the odds for success will skyrocket vs throwing darts at a board and praying that one of them can turn into Brayden Point in the next 2-3yrs. And, if you read my comment, I didn’t say that all of these players had to come from the draft. I also mentioned that we could target the player we wanted that’s already established and do the same thing. Sure, McDavid has no Cups…. yet. It’s the same lame rhetoric I hear all the time. “No $10M+ player has ever won the Cup”. Nothing ever happened the first time… until it did. And it will happen. With the cap set to jump higher than ever the next few years, $10M players will be everywhere. One of those teams will win the Cup. It took Yzerman 13yrs to win a Cup. It took Ovechkin 14yrs. I guess those guys were losers until that happened? McDavid was historic in this Cup run. They fell 2 goals short. Draisaitl stumbled at the worst time. Had he potted just a couple goals, the $10M player with no Cups debate is finally dead and buried.

morrisk

OK, you go get your few “elite pieces”. I’ll take a few Verhaeghes and Points instead. My team will beat your team in the playoffs…

Tyrone

Because Point won the Cup for Tampa on his own, without #1 overall pick Stamkos, #2 overall pick Hedman, ultra-elite offensive wizard Kucherov, and elite Conn Smythe trophy winner Vasilevskiy in net? Gotcha. Now I won’t bother adding any guys like those to the team we already have. Thanks for the wisdom.

Tyrone

And for the record… Bobrovsky makes $10M, so end of rhetoric.

LemonHart

Did not Kane and Toews make in the 10 million mark with Chicago in some of their cup years? I honestly can’t remember if they got the money after, during or before. Although I pretty sure not before their 1st cup.

Tyrone

Nope. Those contracts came after the Cups.

Josh

Why would the opposing GM ever make a deal like that? Don’t you think they’re going to keep the generational talent every time?

Tyrone

Of course. But it’s worth trying. And to be clear, this strategy isn’t just generational players. It could be tried for a guy like Celebrini or an established young star player already. It is possible that a GM has star players already and they are looking for the final pieces to build a champ. With an arsenal of picks, it gives them plenty of options. Perhaps the team can’t afford the next contract of the star player. There’s plenty of scenarios that could work. Obviously, they’re extremely unlikely to play out, but it’s worth a try. The Habs offered every pick to the Penguins in 1984 for the right to draft Lemieux, so it’s been attempted. I believe they tried the same thing for Kovalchuk too.

Andrew

Looks like we should trade our fifth round picks for sixth round picks.