Montreal Canadiens 2024 Draft Pick Positions And NHLer Odds

The upcoming 2024 NHL Entry Draft will be very important for the Montreal Canadiens, as it may very well be the last time they’ll have an opportunity to be among the teams that own a top-five pick.

Overall, the draft is expected to be a good one for the Habs, as they’re heading into the weekend with a bevy of picks that equate to the second-most pre-draft value for the organization in the last 25 years.

And while it’s always encouraging to see the sum of the value of the picks, we also have to keep in mind that not all picks are created equally.

Montreal Canadiens 2024 Draft Positions

The Canadiens currently own 12 draft picks in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft: 5th, 26th (via Winnipeg), 57th (via Colorado), 70th, 78th (via Minnesota), 102nd, 130th (via San Jose), 134th, 166th, 198th, 210th (via Washington), and 224th overall (via Edmonton).

If we break it down to the rounds and cross-reference Byron Bader’s Hit Rate chart, we get a better picture of the odds involved with the aforementioned picks, including the percentage difference between drafting a forward or a defenceman.

In Bader’s study, forwards are considered NHLers if they play 200+ games and maintain a 0.7 points per game or more scoring rate throughout their careers. Defencemen are considered NHLers if they play 200+ games and maintain a 0.45 points per game or more scoring pace throughout their careers.

First Round – Forwards

5th overall – 91.3% chance the player in question will become an NHL player, with a 37.7 percent chance they’ll become a star.

26th overall – 56.3% chance to become an NHL player, with an 8.1% chance they’ll become a star.

First Round – Defencemen

5th overall – 94.4% NHLer, 27.8% star.

26th overall – 44.6% NHLer odds, 6.2% star.

As you can see, the discrepancy between the two picks owned by the Canadiens is quite evident. While their own pick at fifth overall has very good odds of becoming an impact player, Winnipeg’s 26th overall pick is a different story. The odds also improve if the Habs decide to pick a forward in both cases.

Remaining Montreal Canadiens picks

Second Round

57th overall – Forward: 32.8% NHLer, 3.9% star. Defenceman: 29.3% NHLer, 4.1% star.

Third Round

70th and 78th overall – Forward: 21.4% NHLer, 2.0% star. Defenceman: 18.8% NHLer, 1.7% star.

Fourth Round

102nd overall – Forward: 17.8% NHLer, 0.9% star. Defenceman: 16.5% NHLer, 1.9% star.

Fifth Round

130th and 134th overall – Forward: 12.5% NHLer, 0.7% star. Defenceman: 11.4% NHLer, 1.1% star.

Sixth Round

166th overall – Forward 14.2% NHLer. 1.2% star. Defenceman: 12.9% NHLer, 1.2% star.

Seventh Round

198th, 210th, and 224th overall – Forward: 10.5% NHLer. 0.7% star. Defenceman: 9.6% NHLer, 1.2% star.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

Byron’s hit rate chart reinforces the idea that quality significantly overshadows quantity at the draft. The Canadiens are almost guaranteed to get an NHL player from the fifth overall pick, with an outside chance they’ll become a star.

The 26th overall pick also carries good odds of becoming an NHLer player, but the odds they’ll become a star are much lower than picks made between 1st and 20th overall.

As for the remainder of the draft, second and third round picks hold some promise, but fans should not hold out hope they’ll turn into impact players. Fortunately, these are historical odds, which means there’s always a chance a team can buck the trend and find a diamond in the rough, as the Canadiens did when they picked Lane Hutson late in the second-round of the 2022 NHL Draft.

Simply put, we shouldn’t expect much talent from later rounds, but a good scouting team can improve the chances a team can find quality depth players once the first round is over.

(Draft hit-rate chart via Hockey Prospecting)