Canadiens Analysis
Canadiens Tank Watch: Lottery Odds Decided In Final Games
There are just a handful of games left in the NHL’s regular season, and yet we still haven’t determined where the Montreal Canadiens will finish in the standings.
The final few games will all play a major role in deciding what type of NHL Draft Lottery odds the Habs will have once the dust has settled.
Current Situation
The Canadiens are currently 28th, however, they’re just one point behind the Ottawa Senators while also being tied with the Arizona/Salt-Lake City Coyotes.
The Coyotes have won more games in regulation, which means they currently have the advantage in a tiebreaker situation. The Senators also have more regulation wins than the Canadiens.
Montreal Canadiens Draft Lottery Odds
If the Canadiens were to maintain their 28th overall position, they would have the following odds:
First overall: 8.5 percent.
Second overall: 8.6 percent.
Third overall: 0.3 percent.
Fourth overall: N/A
Fifth overall: 24.5 percent
Sixth overall: 44 percent.
Seventh overall: 14.2 percent.
On that note, there are chances the Canadiens could also finish 26th or 27th, depending on how the Coyotes and Senators play to close out the season. This would reduce their chances of drafting in the top three while improving the odds their pick will end up toward the later part of the top 10.
Remaining Games
The Canadiens will face the Senators on Saturday, followed by back-to-back games against the Detroit Red Wings to close out the season.
While the Senators have gone through yet another disappointing season, a recurring theme in Ottawa, they still go out of their way to push the Canadiens to the limit any time the two teams face each other. It should also be noted that the Senators were victorious in both previous meetings between the clubs, winning 6-2 and 4-1, respectively.
This game may end up being the most important match-up of the season for head coach Martin St-Louis and general manager Kent Hughes.
As for the Red Wings, they may not be a powerhouse team, but they’re desperately attempting to qualify for the playoffs, with their hopes clinging to the last Wildcard Spot in the Eastern Conference. This means the team should be firing on all cylinders once they face the Habs.
The Senators have a much more difficult schedule in the final three games, as they’ll face the Boston Bruins and the New York Rangers, two teams that have Stanley Cup aspirations.
However, given they have already qualified for the playoffs, there’s a good chance the Bruins and Rangers won’t ice their best lineups against the Senators. The final two games of the year usually involve several top-notch players sitting out to avoid a potential injury.
The Coyotes have to face the Edmonton Oilers twice, as well as the struggling Calgary Flames. It’s hard to get a read on how those games will be played, but we should note the Coyotes have the best record in the last 10 games among the three teams we’re currently evaluating.
Brass Tacks
The Montreal Canadiens are guaranteed to pick in the top 10 at the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, but the final games of the year will go a long way in establishing whether they’ll have an opportunity to put their hands on one of the best available players.
While Macklin Celebrini is expected to be drafted first overall, there will still be a bevy of talented prospects available, including several high-end forwards who have the potential to become impact players.
With a little luck, they can improve their Draft Lottery odds in the last three games of the season, a season that happens to be the last in which fans and management expect to rely on the draft to improve the long-term outlook of the rebuild.
All Montreal Canadiens schedule information and draft odds are via Tankathon.
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I’ll go on record with my list of forwards
Celebrini/ Lindstrom/ Demidov/ Iginla/Catton and eiserman.
The only way I’ll be disappointed is not getting one of them, meaning we take a defenseman.
Good choices. From what I’ve read, the differences between players 2-10 are not that far apart. I agree with your point concerning a defenseman. If the BPA is a D, HuGo should either trade down and secure a prospect or trade the pick for another Dach/Newhook project like player. This may also happen if they draft at 8 or 9. Pure speculation on my part.
I listen to the Servalli/ Hughes interview from the other day and Kent talked about Slav and how they feel he will be a game breaker, the guy that comes through in big moments. Imagine if we get another guy like that!!
He also said Dach was the best player on the team during training camp and until he got hurt. I tend to underestimate how good he will be. People seem to think Suzuki is a small guy. He’s 211 pounds, a 5’11” fire hydrant, he’s hard to move. Slav and Dach are very big men so only Caufield is small. Point is, we have size and skill which allows Hughes flexibility when making the selection in June or trading. If he drafts a bigger guy like iginla or Lindstrom, that becomes troublesome for a team to defend as you are ( eventually) throwing 2 big skilled lines out for clues to 40 minutes a game. To recognize how much of an issue that is, how would we defend that? Not comfortably…Not many teams are equipped to deal with that.
If the BPA is a defenseman, Hughes could simply ignore him if the next best forward is not that far in terms of ratings. Trading down would be risking not getting the best forward available; the extra draft pick that Hughes would get might not be worth it.
I’ll agree with your assessment and add the Habs are guaranteed to finish anywhere from 5th to 8th – pre lottery, of course. I’ll also add that there is a very high likelihood that 2 Dmen are taken by 2 of the remaining 7 clubs in that range. If we assume this will be the case, and that Maklin will be taken #1 (and Habs don’t get that pick), that leaves 5 top wingers left for just 4 teams in that range. So a guarantee the Habs get one of them – and will likely even have a choice of at least two.
I would like any one of those listed except for Eiserman…simply because he’s headed off to college for at least one season – while all the other can come right into either Laval or the Habs immediately.
I would suggest as many as 5 defenders will go top 10. Anaheim, st Jose, Columbus Arizona and Calgary appear to need D as a top priority. Ottawa woukd be bpa. Chicago needs a forward.
Zeev Buium, Sam Dickinson, levshunov, Zayne Parekh, Anton Silayev( 6’7” who plays with our prospect Bogdan Konishkov in Torpedo) and Carter Yakemchuk are all well thought of top part of the board candidates so yes, we will have a difficult decision of which of tge multiple available forward on the list to select.
Great problem to have!
At the start of this draft year in June, Eiserman was the one guy that pundits considered as a viable option to celebrini at 1. However he has fallen down all lists since then. What I like is that he scores a lot- great shot, hard and accurate with a lightning release. Plus he’s barely draft Eligible this year, he and iginla are August birthdays. I would not shy away as he will be nhl ready in a few years when we start to contend. The things they have against him are the things Marty excels at teaching. So yes he was last on my list, but I’d be pleased to get him. He’s 6’ 200lbs today….
Eiserman is a pure goal scorer with an elite shot like Caufield. At 5’11.75″, 197 lbs, he already has the build to play in the NHL. After one season playing against young adults in the NCAA, he will be a far more complete prospect. He’ll be the youngest prospect drafted on the 2024 draft’s first day; because of it, his ceiling might well be underestimated. I would be quite happy if he’s selected.
Not many have Iginla as high as you. He was born August 1, 2006. If he was born 6 weeks later, he wouldn’t yet be eligible for this draft. For this reason, his ceiling might be higher than most think.
As for Eiserman, he was born August 29, 2006. He might have dropped according to many, but he’s a month younger than Iginla. Concerns over his lack of maturity should be put in context.
Helenius, a C/RW, would be a good consolation prize.
It’s true Pierre but not many guys, if any, have rocketed up the boards this year like Iginla. I suspect he will be in the top 10 on the majority of final ranking lists. He ended up with 47 goals and then bagged 3 his first playoff game. His progression this year was significant and he looks a lot like his Dad, although I don’t think as tough as Jarome. He will undoubtedly cause a lot if opposition coaches, D and goalies insomnia over the next 20 years.
I’m not as sold on Helenius as his skill set may not be unique or as high level as the other candidates. I would be inclined go with Liam Greentree over him.
I see an article out today at the Habs site Dose.ca that addresses the issue of Iginla at #5/6 and ask woukd Montreal really consider it and they answer yes and justify it. Being skilled and able to physically beat you a number of different ways is enticing. We will know in a few months. Let’s just win the lottery and end the suspense…
I just noticed Prince George have shut out Kelowna in both games in the second round so that offsets some of Iginlas props from round 1. Not a big thing but big enough to mention it. 5 shots, -2 in the 2 games.
Just to complete the author’s text:
With the 9th best lottery odds, the Seattle Kraken is now out of reach. Even if the Canadiens win all their coming games and the Kraken loses all theirs, they’ll both have 79 points, but the Kraken will have more regular time wins, the first tie-breaker.
With the 8th best lottery odds, the Calgary Flames currently have 75 points, that is, just two more than the 73 points of the Montreal Canadiens. With 3 games left to play, the Canadiens could overtake them. While the Flames have one of the easiest remaining schedule with 4 games to play (ANA, ARI, VAN, SJS), they’re in a slump with 2W-8L in last 10 games. A Flames’ loss tonight against ANA would be annoying to those who wish the best lottery odds for the Canadiens.
Columbus Blue Jackets with 64 points and two games left, are garanteed to finish with the 4th best lottery odds.