Why Calgary’s Retool Could Be Beneficial For The Canadiens

The Montreal Canadiens hold the Calgary Flames’ 2025 1st-round pick, which could end up being a very interesting asset if the Flames go full-throttle on their re-tool.

Yes, that 1st-round pick with the ridiculously convoluted conditions could very well be a strong trade chip for the Canadiens as soon as this summer.

Having acquired this pick from the Flames in the summer of 2022 along with Sean Monahan for future considerations, the Canadiens were able to add another 1st-round pick to their collection when they subsequently moved Monahan to Winnipeg this February.

After shipping out all of their top-tier, pending free agents leading up to the NHL Trade Deadline and likely moving goaltender Jacob Markstrom in the summer, it appears GM Craig Conroy is going shopping this summer.

“One thing we didn’t have last year was any flexibility on the cap, so we weren’t able to add anything,” said Conroy in an interview with Daily Faceoff. “So this year to have some money and build the team and add some players is going to be big for us moving forward.”

It likely means that the Flames, who are currently sitting in 21st place in the NHL standings, aren’t likely to regress too much next season; if at all.

And that could be good news for the Canadiens.

Breaking It Down

But wouldn’t a rebuilding Calgary offer up a more advantageous situation for the Canadiens, since they would likely finish lower in the standings next year?

The short answer is: Not really.

Buried within the infinite amount of trade conditions included in the Monahan deal is a little protection that Calgary gave itself in case they were ever to fall off the wagon completely.

According to the details of the trade, the Montreal Canadiens are slated to receive the better of Calgary or the Florida Panthers’ 2025 1st-round pick, unless Calgary were to pick in the bottom 10. Should that happen, the Canadiens would instead get Florida’s selection.

And, since it doesn’t look like the Panthers are going for a slide down the standings in the coming years, that would likely mean the pick would fall in the 20-32 range. After all, even an injury-plagued start to the season didn’t stop the Panthers from being one of the best teams in the NHL this season, so it’s hard to believe they’ll suddenly take a massive step back.

For the Canadiens who saw Florida’s 2023 1st-round pick, originally acquired in the Ben Chiarot trade, go from a potential lottery pick to the 31st overall pick last season thanks to the Panthers’ improbable run to the Stanley Cup Finals, winding up with Florida’s pick in 2025 would be the worst case scenario.

However, if Conroy is successful in being a player in the free agent market this summer, the Flames, who hold over $18M in cap space, could put themselves in a position to be a bubble team next season.

Why is that good? 

To simplify things, unless Florida has a monumental far from grace during the 2024-2025 season and misses the playoffs, the best the Montreal Canadiens could hope for is to walk away from the Monahan trade with the 11th overall pick in the 2025 NHL Draft.

NHL betting odds have the Flames topping out at roughly 87 points this season, which, based on last year’s standings, would have been good for 20th in the NHL Standings and the 13th overall pick. If the Flames were to mirror the same outcome next season, the Canadiens would effectively walk away from the with a very good pick for taking on Monahan.

Had the Flames decided to tear it all down and do a full rebuild, as teams like the Chicago Blackhawks and San Jose Sharks have done of late, it would have been more worrisome for the Montreal Canadiens, as the chances of Calgary sliding into the bottom 10 next season would shoot way, way up.

And granted, it is a little soon to be talking about something that will be happening a year from now, but it’s worth looking at all the variables in advance, as the many trade conditions attached to Calgary’s 2025 1st-round pick create unique scenarios.

So let’s quickly dive into Calgary’s reality for the 2024-2025 season.

Stiff Competition Or Not?

The three worst teams in the NHL are all part of the Western Conference: Chicago, San Jose and Anaheim.

None of these three clubs are expected to rise out of the basement of the NHL standings too quickly, and that only helps likely bubble teams like the Calgary Flames, Minnesota Wild, Seattle Kraken and St-Louis Blues have better shots at making the NHL playoffs next season.

Where things may be a tad difficult for the Flames though, is qualifying for the playoffs, as they face stiff competition not only in their division, but in the conference as a whole.

Let’s look at the Pacific Division:

The Vancouver Canucks are set to be good for a while with their core locked in.

The Edmonton Oilers will likely be making one final push for the Stanley Cup next season while they still have Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid together under their current deals as Draisaitl is set to become a UFA in the summer of 2025.

The LA Kings will likely improve greatly once they finally address their goaltending woes.

And the Vegas Golden Knights seemingly cannot be denied from the playoffs, if they remain healthy.

Needless to say, it’ll be a whole lot harder for Calgary to make the playoffs than to stay out of the bottom 10; especially with Anaheim and San Jose as divisional rivals.

End Game

The Flames made some eyebrow-raising trades over the last two months when moving Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev and Elias Lindholm, but, each trade set a clear indication of what the Flames want to do.

Usually, in deals leading up to the trade deadline, teams stock up on picks to help them rebuild, but Calgary went for deals that included NHL players and prospects that could help the team as early as next season.

They even turned down a 1st-round pick in their discussions for Chris Tanev because they put more value in getting prospects who could help the team sooner, rather than a higher pick in the upcoming draft.

Acquiring players like Andrei Kuzmenko and Daniil Miromanov is just the start of the Calgary Flames’ re-tool, but we’ve seen that those strategies rarely work without a significant influx of talent.

Their current core of Johnathan Huberdeau, Mackenzie Weegar, Nazem Kadri and Rasmus Andersson is good; but not enough to rival the powers in the West,

Unfortunately for the Flames, their bid to remain competitive without bringing in game-changing talent may impede them from moving beyond just being a bubble team; and that could be of great benefit to the Montreal Canadiens in a year from now.

It’s something to keep an eye on.

*For more NHL betting lines and futures, head over to FanDuel