Should The Canadiens Show Interest In Goaltender Carter Hart?

It’s well known the Montreal Canadiens lack goaltending options throughout the organization.

Beyond the dearth of goaltenders in the prospect pool, they hardly have enough signed goaltenders to cover their NHL and AHL teams.

An injury to Jake Allen, Samuel Montembeault, Cayden Primeau or Jakub Dobes would thrust the team into a difficult situation, which means the team is well aware they need to shore up their goaltending options.

With that in mind, one very interesting option has reportedly hit the market: Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Carter Hart.

Hearing that the #Flyers are working on a deal involving Carter Hart.#fueledbyphilly

— Anthony Di Marco (@ADiMarco25) June 6, 2023

The question becomes whether Hart would represent a significant improvement over Montembeault, and if so, what should the team offer the Flyers in exchange for the 2016 second-round pick.

By The Numbers

Hart took the league by storm in his first few seasons, at least relatively speaking.

He produced a .917 and .914 save percentage in his first two seasons, giving hope to the franchise that their long-time goaltending woes had finally been solved.

But as is the case with many young goaltenders, Hart’s numbers started to fluctuate significantly.

Hart finished his third, fourth and fifth seasons in the league with a .877, .905, and .907 save percentage, respectively.

However, we must always remember context is king in hockey. Playing for a struggling franchise is rarely a conducive situation for goaltenders to thrive.

But thanks to an advanced metric, goals saved above average (GSAA) we can get a better idea of how some goaltenders are performing despite how poorly the team in front of them has been playing.

In Hart’s case, he finished the season by saving 15.8 goals above average at 5v5, good for 11th overall in the league.

For reference, Canadiens goaltender Montembeault finished 15th in the league with 13 GSAA.

The difference between the two is minimal, as both finished the year with numbers that would suggest they provided their team with two wins above average, though it should be noted Hart did have a better season than Montembeault in almost every statistical category, including rebound control.

In that sense, Hart does represent an upgrade on Montembeault according to last year’s stats, though not necessarily enough to suggest he’d be a significant upgrade.

The Cost

Hart, 24, is younger than Montembeault, which means he does fit into the Canadiens’ overall rebuild time frame better than his counterpart.

And this is where things get interesting.

Hart certainly has more pedigree than Montembeault. One was heralded as a future starter in the NHL, while the other was treated as an afterthought prior to his emergence this season.

But pedigree should hold little to no value in this situation, particularly when we’re discussing their current form.

It’s also worth noting that goaltenders rarely carry much value on the NHL’s trade market, thus, the Canadiens should probably avoid spending high-end assets to slightly improve their goaltending situation.

And then there’s the matter of salary. Hart is in the last year of a three-year contract that comes with a $3.9 million cap hit. He will be a restricted free agent once his contract expires.

While it may be easy to suggest the team should quickly offer their late first-round pick in exchange for Hart’s services, the current trade market, as well as the relatively minimal difference between his numbers and Montembeault’s, means it could result in an overpay once all the dust has settled.

Yes, the Canadiens should be interested in a player like Carter Hart, but they also must be cautious as navigate the icy waters involved in evaluating NHL goaltenders.

All statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via MoneyPuck.