Habs Prospects

Canadiens NHL Draft Lottery Rules And Potential Odds Refresher

Published

12 months ago

May 2, 2023

With the 2023 Draft Lottery less than a week again, the Montreal Canadiens first-round draft position is about to become clear.

Or, at the very least, they’ll know where their first-round pick will land.

As for the first-round pick they acquired from the Florida Panthers, the Canadiens will have to wait until the conclusion of the second-round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs to know its fate.

First Overall Odds

The first overall pick is awarded by a random weighted draw.

Teams can only move up 10 spots, which means only the 11 teams with the worst records this season are eligible to land the first overall pick.

N.B. These are not the complete Draft Lottery Odds, but rather, the odds of landing the first overall pick. If a team ranked 12th to 16th wins the Draft Lottery (combined odds of 7 percent), the Anaheim Ducks will automatically be given the first pick, seeing as those teams can only move up 10 spots, and thus, cannot pick first overall.

The odds to win the first overall pick at the 2023 NHL Draft are as follows for the teams ranked 1 through 11:

1. Anaheim Ducks – 25.5%

2. Colombus Blue Jackets – 13.5%

3. Chicago Blackhawks – 11.5%

4. San Jose Sharks – 9.5%

5. Montreal Canadiens – 8.5 %

6. Arizona Coyotes – 7.5%

7. Philadelphia Flyers – 6.5%

8. Washington Capitals – 6.0%

9. Detroit Red Wings – 5.0%

10. St-Louis Blues – 3.5%

11. Vancouver Canucks – 3.0%

Second Draw

Once the first Lottery takes place, the winning team is locked in at that position, and a second draw takes place to determine the other winner of the second Draft Lottery.

Once again, the winner can only move up 10 spots, and it will not impact the team that won the first lottery. Their pick is locked-in at this point of the Draft Lottery, and if the team that wins the second lottery lands at their draft position, they will simply move down one spot to the next available draft position.

The odds to win the second overall pick at the 2023 NHL Draft are as follows:

1. Anaheim Ducks – 18.8%

2. Colombus Blue Jackets – 14.1%

3. Chicago Blackhawks – 11.2%

4. San Jose Sharks – 9.5%

5. Montreal Canadiens – 8.6 %

6. Arizona Coyotes – 7.7%

7. Philadelphia Flyers – 6.7%

8. Washington Capitals – 6.2%

9. Detroit Red Wings – 5.2%

10. St-Louis Blues – 3.7%

11. Vancouver Canucks – 3.2%

12. Ottawa Senators – 5.1%

Montreal Canadiens Complete Odds

In addition to having an 8.5 percent chance to be awarded the first overall pick and an 8.6 percent chance to be awarded the second overall pick, the Canadiens have a small chance to finish with the third overall pick (0.3%).

Simply put, they have a 17.4 percent chance to be among the first three teams to take to the podium at the 2023 Draft.

It’s impossible that they end up with the fourth overall pick, but they have very strong odds of finishing with the fifth overall pick (24.5%), the sixth overall pick (44%), or the seventh overall pick (14.2 percent).

They cannot drop any lower than the seventh overall pick, seeing as only two teams will have the opportunity to leap-frog them during the two lotteries.

To recap, the Canadiens have a 17.4 percent chance of picking in the top three, a 24.5 percent chance of staying put at fifth overall, and a 58.2 percent chance of dropping a spot or two at the Draft Lottery.

MUST READ: Top-64 2023 NHL Draft Rankings, Post U-18 Championship Edition

Draft Lottery Odds via Tankathon.