Canadiens Potential Draft Lottery Outcomes, 3rd Overall Possible?

The NHL Draft Lottery is less than three weeks away, and the Montreal Canadiens are hoping to get lucky for the second year in a row.

By virtue of finishing 28th overall in the NHL standings, the Canadiens have the fifth-best odds for the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery on May 8.

Since last season, there are now two lotteries, rather than three, that allow teams to either claim the 1st or 2nd overall picks, or improve their drank rank by up to 10 spots.

By virtue of having the fifth-best odds, the Canadiens have a guaranteed top-7 pick in the coveted 2023 NHL Draft locked down, and simply need the lottery balls to drop to determine their fate.

There are a few ways the Montreal Canadiens’ lottery outcome could go, and it’s not as simple as you may think.

1st Overall

This is as cut-and-dry as you could expect.

If the Canadiens win the lottery for the 1st overall selection, they would climb four spots to select Connor Bedard at No. 1 and essentially put a jetpack on their ongoing rebuild.

As it stands right now, the Habs have an 8.5% chance of winning the top prize in the lottery, which is far less than the 25.5% they had last year by virtue of finishing 32nd overall in 2021-2022.

2nd Overall

Just like the 1st overall selection, if the Montreal Canadiens were to win the second lottery after a team ranked 1 to 11 wins the first lottery, then they would be awarded the 2nd overall pick.

The Canadiens have an 8.6% chance of being able to leapfrog the Columbus Blue Jackets, Chicago Blackhawks and San Jose Sharks for the coveted pick.

However, if a team ranked 12 to 16 wins the first lottery, a very unique outcome could unfold.

3rd Overall

In the very minute chance that the Ottawa Senators, currently owning the 12th best odds in the NHL Draft Lottery, were to win the first lottery, they would only be able to move up 10 spots, per NHL ruling.

In this scenario, the Anaheim Ducks, who finished 32nd overall, would automatically be awarded the 1st overall pick, Ottawa would be given the 2nd overall pick, and the winner of the second lottery would be awarded the 3rd overall pick in consequence.

There’s a 0.3% chance that such an outcome could come to pass, but it remains a possibility for the Canadiens, should the stars align.

5th Overall

If the Canadiens are moderately lucky and don’t have any of their rivals ranked 6th to 15th leapfrog over them by way of a lottery win, they would retain their current spot and select at the coveted 5th overall rank.

The Canadiens have a 24.5% chance of staying put after May 8 and walking into Nashville with a top-5 pick.

6th Overall

Of all the scenarios, the Canadiens falling back a spot to select at 6th overall is the most likely of them all.

With a 44.5% chance of getting leapfrogged by a team trailing behind them, the Canadiens could slide from 5 to 6.

7th Overall

The least attractive scenario of all could see the Montreal Canadiens slide two spots to the 7th overall rank.

Luckily, the Canadiens have higher odds of winning one of the two lotteries (17.4%) then they do of sliding down a couple of spots (14.2%), but it remains a real possibility that has occurred in the past.

Where do you see the Montreal Canadiens landing on May 8th? Let us know!