Canadiens Tank Tracker: Lottery Odds Down To Final Games

The race to the bottom of the standings will come down to the final few games of the season for the Montreal Canadiens.

Not only have the Arizona Coyotes managed to win just one game in the last 10 matchups, but they have also usurped the Canadiens’ position as the team with the fifth-worst record in the NHL.

Fortunately for the Canadiens, the Philadelphia Flyers are no longer a threat, seeing as they’re three points ahead of the Habs and have one game in hand. The Flyers will face the Boston Bruins, which is essentially a guaranteed loss, but they will also play games against the New York Islanders, as well as the lowly Chicago Blackhawks and the struggling Columbus Blue Jackets.

As for the Coyotes, they also have a relatively easy remaining strength of schedule, with one game against a playoff team, the Seattle Kraken, and two games against teams that have struggled this season: the Vancouver Canucks and the Anaheim Ducks.

Habs Angle

In addition to facing the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday night, the Canadiens also have a game left against one of the best teams in the history of the NHL: the Boston Bruins.

We must consider the possibility that the Bruins will rest players against the Habs, as to enter the playoffs with as few injuries as possible, but even if Boston does decide to rest half their roster, they still have more talent at their disposal than the Canadiens, who are having a hard time finding enough healthy defencemen and goaltenders to ice a legal lineup.

They will also face the Islanders, who are in the process of solidifying their grip on the final wild-card spot in the east, which should guarantee Martin St-Louis’ team will face a highly-motivated opponent at a time when motivation is hard to come by in Montreal.

Brass Tacks

Even though the schedule is favourable to the Canadiens, there simply aren’t enough games left on the roster to simply rely on having a more difficult strength of schedule.

Ideally, the Canadiens would lose their final three games of the season outright, but even that won’t guarantee a bottom-five finish.

Of course, by finishing as the sixth-worst team in the NHL, the Canadiens will still have a 7.5 percent chance of winning the Draft Lottery, a relatively negligible difference from the 8.5 percent odds awarded to the team that will finish 28th.

Seeing as Arizona can’t buy a win in the last few weeks, Canadiens fans should probably start to prepare for the possibility of seeing their team finish 27th.

All strength of schedule information via Tankathon.