Canadiens Once Again Linked To Dubois, Timing Will Be Key

The chatter linking the Montreal Canadiens to Pierre Luc-Dubois picked up again this week, but the likelihood of such an acquisition seems unlikely for now, unless the price is right.

It’s been no secret to the hockey world that Dubois has been linked to the Canadiens for a while now, dating back to his days with the Columbus Blue Jackets and even at the 2016 NHL Draft.

The smoke around the player over the last few years has created a sense of inevitability that he’ll find his way to Montreal.

On a recent segment of the 32 Thoughts podcast, NHL insider Elliotte Friedman once again linked the Jets centre to the Canadiens; insinuating that his probable departure and likely landing in Montreal could impact Winnipeg’s Trade Deadline strategy.

“The thing about the Jets, is I think this is a year they should be going for it,” said Friedman regarding the sense of urgency in Winnipeg. “I think they have a good team and a wide-open Western Conference. Here’s the thing about the Jets, Wheeler is a free agent and Dubois; we all know that situation leans more towards Montreal. And Scheifele only has a year left after as well. So they could trade for Meier and basically decide to rebuild their entire team around him.”

Since Dubois’ agent, Pat Brisson identified Montreal as a desirable location for his client to play in, the chatter has simply refused to go away,

Early this year, Nick Kypreos also made reference to how all signs seem to point toward Dubois eventually landing in Montreal.

“There’s a blazing fire here,” said Nick Kypreos, while appearing on the Tim And Friends podcast last week. “He is not staying in Winnipeg long term. There is nothing that can change his mind, from what I’m hearing.”

Pierre-Luc Dubois "is not staying in Winnipeg long-term" and is linked with the Canadiens.

Would PLD be a good fit in Montreal? @RealKyper | #GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/M30UnuQHAp

— Tim and Friends (@timandfriends) January 18, 2023

Dubois is currently signed to a one-year, $6 million extension, and will be a restricted free agent once his contract expires this summer.

There have been rumours that have linked the 25-year-old centre to the Canadiens as early as this summer, in order to sign him to a long-term deal before he hits free agency in 2024.

However, for the Canadiens, assuming the desire for Dubois to make the move to Montreal is genuine, they would likely be better off sticking to the plan, unless the price is reasonable.

Playing Poker

The Canadiens are building a very exciting, young core at the moment around Nick Suzuki, Kirby Dach, Cole Caufield and much more youngsters, but there’s still some work to be done.

When looking across Montreal’s very competitive Atlantic Division, it will be excessively hard for the Canadiens to compete with the likes of the Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators and the aging Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers with their current lineup.

Paying prime assets to acquire a player like Dubois, which will undoubtedly require a 1st-round pick, a top prospect and a roster player for starters, would be a high price for a player that is set on leaving Winnipeg.

Pierre-Luc Dubois will give the Canadiens an enviable amount of depth at forward, but it could put the team at a disadvantage when it comes to filling other positions of need, due to liquidating some of their most tradeable picks or young assets for Dubois.

It quickly becomes a game of poker between the Winnipeg Jets and the Montreal Canadiens.

Strike When The Time Is Right

It just all depends on Winnipeg’s price for their top centre.

If they demand a package that includes one of Montreal’s 2023 1st-round picks, a top prospect like Lane Hutson or Owen Beck, along with a roster player like Josh Anderson and possibly more assets, the Canadiens are better off waiting it out.

Dubois is, of course, set to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2024.

The Canadiens could wait it out and jump at the opportunity to their trade for his negotiation rights in June 2024 or pounce at the opportunity to sign him on July 1, 2024.

It would allow the rugged centre to put his, and his agent’s, money where their mouth is; as the Montreal Canadiens have been used as a negotiation tool by coveted players far too many times in the past.

The only potential downside would be that, should Dubois reach free agency, he will likely be able to command more in his contract negotiations as an unrestricted free agent, than if he were still a restricted free agent like this upcoming summer.

It would likely be a massive contract offer, but the top-end, young talent the Canadiens have been acquiring, and would continue to stockpile by not trading for Dubois, would come into play here.

With multiple youngsters jumping to the NHL ranks on entry-level salary ($950,000), the combination of youth and established stars will balance out the salary structure, offering the Canadiens some flexibility, from a roster and trade perspective, down the line.

If there truly is a strong desire for Dubois to make his way to Montreal, the Canadiens would be better served with patience, unless the price is reasonable this summer.

Timing will be key.