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Canadiens Mailbag: NHL Trade Deadline, Rebuild, Dubois’ Value

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1 year ago

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Habs news Montreal Canadiens GM Kent Hughes

Montreal Canadiens fans epitomize passion.

Even in a down year (or two), the interest remains sky-high, a testament to the dedication from millions around the globe. With that interest comes an endless list of questions.

We’re here to answer as many as possible in the bi-weekly Canadiens mailbag.

This week we cover a lot of ground, focusing on the upcoming trade deadline, potential deals, Pierre-Luc Dubois’ value, hot sauce, and much more.

If you’d like to have your question answered don’t hesitate to leave it in the comments below the article, and we’ll get to it next week.

Rafael’s Revelation

`Yes and yes.

Even if the Rafael Harvey-Pinard call-up only occurred once the Canadiens essentially ran out of options, his performance since the promotion has been nothing short of extraordinary.

Take a quick trip down memory lane and ask yourself how many Habs prospects who were chosen in the seventh round managed to make their out of the Laval Rocket’s bottom six, onto the top line, and then perform above expectations once the long-awaited call-up to the NHL took place.

The first, and perhaps only name that comes to mind is Jake Evans.

It’s a rare feat because the journey prospects drafted outside the first round must take to the NHL is set up for them to fail. Playing on the fourth line means minimal ice time with forwards who are rarely burdened with an abundance of skill.

It’s simply not conducive to producing in the NHL.

Not only did Harvey-Pinard make his way to the big leagues by playing his heart out and forcing Canadiens management to notice him in the AHL, but he also produced on the fourth line, enough to earn a promotion to the first line. Not to mention, he formed instant chemistry alongside Nick Suzuki and Josh Anderson on that line.

You don’t want him on the first line in an ideal situation, but the fact remains he has done absolutely everything possible to take advantage of his opportunity.

By ignoring his exploits, you’d be sending a terrible message to the rest of the organization, particularly the players hoping to someday earn a job in the NHL.

As for Montembeault, in my opinion, he hasn’t just been good this season, he’s been the Canadiens’ most valuable player, in more ways than one.

He’s saved 11 goals above the expected average, rarely having a poor start despite the questionable defensive structure in front of him, and his contract only carries a $1 million annual average value.

Goalies tend to peak later than skaters, and with that in mind, I’d give Montembeault plenty of freedom to show the Canadiens what he can do in the short term, perhaps solving some long-term organizational issues in the process.

Defensive Decisions

As encouraging as the play from the rookie blueliners has been, especially in the context of a complete tear-down and rebuild, in general, we tend to underestimate the amount of movement on NHL rosters from year to year.

Defensive groups are a little more stable, but a quick look at the Canadiens’ roster in the last six years gives us a decent idea of how much change we can expect.

In 2016, the team’s most used defencemen were Shea Weber, Andrei Markov, Jeff Petry, Nathan Beaulieu, Alexei Emelin, and Mark Barberio.

By 2019, both Weber and Petry remained, but the rest of the blueline saw significant movement, with Ben Chiarot, Victor Mete, Brett Kulak, Marco Scandella, and Cale Fleury taking the place of the departed players.

This season, not a single defenceman remains from either roster.

Of course, a new GM played a big part in the change, but there are healthy odds the current blueline looks very different in three years.

With that in mind, I’d suggest Lane Hutson will be on the team by then. He’ll probably spend one more year with Boston University and then sign his entry-level contract with the Canadiens. As for Mattias Norlinder and Jayden Struble, I don’t see a long-term fit with this team, but out of the two of them, Struble has the best odds of still being around by 2026.

I expect roughly half the players you listed to still be with the team, and if I were the general manager, I’d focus on players that have good speed, can quickly retrieve pucks, and improve the team in transition.

That means players like Jordan Harris, Kaiden Guhle, and Justin Barron.

Trade Temptation

Usually, I’d suggest a centre like Christian Dvorak, who is great at faceoffs and has shown an affinity for stalwart defensive work in the past, would be a hot commodity at the deadline.

But we have to be honest with ourselves.

His contract is a problem.

Dvorak is slated to be paid $4.45 million until 2025, and with the relatively stagnant salary cap in play, I don’t think many teams would be interested in adding his contract to their books.

The Canadiens could decide to retain salary, but unless there are no other deals on the table, it wouldn’t be a very effective use of their cap space.

Overtime Overture

Short answer: No.

Longer answer: Non.

Struble’s Suitors

Right now I see Jayden Struble having a relatively decent chance of eventually earning a job with the Canadiens on the third pairing, but I’m still unsure about his overall potential.

He was great at the Beanpot and has bounced back nicely this season following a series of unfortunate injuries. His offensive prowess is off the charts, but I’m just not sure about his defensive instincts are strong enough to build upon.

He has to work on his defensive positioning, especially when his opponents are attempting to score off the rush. I see a fairly long audition in the AHL with the Laval Rocket because we can start to evaluate his NHL potential.

Springtime Series

Forced to be reckoned with? It’ll probably take half a decade or more, realistically speaking.

That’s when the majority of the core will be in its prime, and most of the current prospects will be close to making a positive impact.

Some fans may feel disheartened with that prediction, but as we’ve seen throughout the NHL, it takes a very long time to build a contender, especially when you rip everything down to the studs.

Juraj Slafkovsky’s development will be key, as will the development of the player they’ll pick first at the Draft this summer.

I’d argue Jeff Gorton and Hughes are doing enough, and I’d even go as far as dismissing the recent complaints that they did not prepare this team for a proper tank.

Montembeault has exceeded all expectations, and that has put a wrinkle in their plans, but the new management team gutted most of the talented veterans from the roster, started the season with a billion rookies on the blue line, and had to deal with roughly 639 injuries.

There’s only so much you can do to ensure a good pick.

I would have liked to see them move more of their underwhelming veteran forwards, but sometimes the NHL trade market simply does not allow for player movement.

And in this case, we can safely assume there’s not much of a market for most of the players’ fans would like to see traded.

Fortunately, the Canadiens have the most difficult strength of schedule in the league, and should still end up with a very good draft pick.

Deadline Deals

Not for a moment.

The same was said last season, and we all know how busy Hughes was leading up to the trade deadline.

I don’t expect him to move a dozen players, but I do expect a few deals from now to March 3rd.

Health will play a big part in the potential trades, but since there’s been very little leaked from Hughes and Co., I don’t put a ton of stock into the current rumours.

 

Mouth Murder

For those who aren’t aware, I host a post-game podcast called Game Over: Montreal.

In a recent episode, my co-host Andrew Berkshire was joined by SDPN boss Adam Wylde following the Maple Leafs to endure the Hot Ones gauntlet and hilarity ensued.

I have no issue doing the gauntlet, but as someone who has been smoking since he was 13 years old (I know, I know), I have coal miners’ taste buds.

When it comes to wings or any other food, I douse everything in hot sauce just to feel alive.

Back in my university days, I would tear through suicide wings by the pound, only tapping out once the capsaicin kicked in and I could no longer feel my face.

So it wouldn’t be very entertaining. You’d basically watch me eat wings, which, truth be told, is not a pretty sight.

Dubois Deal

Look at it this way: what would it take to convince the Habs to trade Kirby Dach?

You’d demand a top prospect, a first-round pick, and maybe even a sweetener.

Pierre-Luc Dubois is a better player with a more polished track record.

I’d assume Lane Hutson and a first-round pick would be the starting point.

I’m terrible at gauging trade value, and I tend to overestimate how much players would cost, but in Dubois’ case, I don’t see the Jets accepting lower value simply to facilitate a trade.

Patience is in order when it comes to Dubois. If he really wants to play for the Canadiens, give him a chance to prove it.

Asset Adjustment

We already covered Dvorak in an earlier question, but this is the first time someone has brought up David Savard in a trade question since we started the mailbag.

But unfortunately, I don’t see much of a market for Savard. If there is, it likely won’t come with a good return for the Canadiens, and despite how well their rookies have played, they do need to keep some veterans on the blue line.

A first-round pick is still on the table if the Habs retain salary and manage to trade Sean Monahan and Joel Edmundson, although it wouldn’t be a very good first-round pick, especially since their respective injury recovery is going rather slowly.

It’s unrealistic for players like Dvorak or Savard.

It’s also worth noting Savard’s contract runs until 2025 and comes with a $3.5 million annual-average value.

Savard is incredibly well-liked on the team. He’s a little bombastic, very friendly, and a key part of maintaining a healthy locker room during a difficult stretch.

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