Canadiens Template For Caufield Extension Becoming Clearer

Recent contract signings from other top pending RFAs could provide the Montreal Canadiens with a clearer template of what a potential Cole Caufield extension could look like.

In the last month, two 2019 NHL Draft selections, Matt Boldy (12th) and Dylan Cozens (7th) signed long-term extensions with the Minnesota Wild and Buffalo Sabres respectively right out of their entry-level contracts (ELC); with others like Trevor Zegras and Cole Caufield still at the negotiation table.

After two solid seasons with the Wild, general manager Bill Guerin signed Boldy to a seven-year, $49M contract worth $7M annually on the cap. So far this season, Matt Boldy has put up similar numbers to his rookie season, registering 16 goals and 20 assists for 36 points in 49 games. He plays a very important offensive role for Minnesota already, despite being the youngest player on the roster.

Meanwhile, Dylan Cozens recently extended his contract earlier this week, signing a seven-year, $49.7M contract worth $7.1M  on the cap. Cozens is having a breakout year, similar to that of teammate Tage Thompson last season, where he’s potted 17 goals and 26 assists for 43 points in 49 games. Cozens has settled nicely as the Sabres’ second-line centre behind Thompson, and it’s helped drive the ascension up the standings for Buffalo this season.

With two of the NHL’s top pending restricted free agents coming off the board, comparing the players, and the contracts they signed, could help give a clearer idea of what a player like Cole Caufield could make on his next contract.

Comparing the three players could help contextualize negotiations between general manager Kent Hughes and Caufield’s camp and predict how it could go:

Overall Impact

Caufield was having a stellar season this year, putting up 26 goals and ten assists for 36 points in 46 games on the offensively starved Montreal Canadiens.

At the time of his injury, Caufield was just outside the top 10 in the NHL in terms of goal-scoring, and one of the most successful goalscorers at even strength.

When it comes to pure impact though, the players aren’t that far from each other, especially at even strength.

The Canadiens control 48.53% of chances when Caufield is on the ice, while Cozens is at 49.72% for the Sabres and Boldy at 52.58% for the Wild. Despite Caufield’s ability to generate prime offensive chances through his goal-scoring, it sometimes comes at the expense of his defence.

This is especially evident when you compare the expected goal differentials for all three players. As seen in the chart below, despite Caufield’s elite goal-scoring ability, his strong play and elite shooting ability make him look exceptional on the stat line, but seemingly brings less value at even-strength as a whole.

Goal Scoring Differential

What Cole Caufield has going for him, is that he’s a goal-scoring machine that carried his club offensively this season. It may have been at the expense of some of the defensive side of his game, but it remains exceptional.

Prior to his injury, Caufield had 21% of the Montreal Canadiens’ goals at that point in the season and still remains the only player on the team to have hit the 20-goal mark.

It’s an important aspect of his game to point out as, he may not impact the rest of the game as well as his peers, he does dominate in one of the most important facets: goal-scoring.

His 21% share of the Canadiens’ goals places him third in the NHL at the moment behind only Mikko Rantanen and Connor McDavid; as the Canadiens have slim pickings in terms of goal-scoring at the moment.

His goal-scoring is what sets him above the rest of his peers when it comes to his value to an NHL team, as goals are always at a premium when it comes to contract negotiations.

It’s what not only allows onlookers to overlook certain defensive issues in Caufield’s game (that will surely be corrected as he matures as a player), but it’s what allows him to command more money.

Brass Tacts

Although Caufield is an elite goal-scorer in the NHL, likely destined for multiple 40-goal seasons, the question is whether the Canadiens take the risk on giving him much more than his aforementioned peers; and if so, how much more?

It could be argued that, given the disparity in goals between Caufield, Cozens and Boldy, that he should easily earn more than them; especially given that his goal totals could be higher playing on a better team.

However, his underlying numbers show that, even with better linemates, his impact on the ice overall isn’t exactly elite, yet.

The Montreal Canadiens would thus be taking on a bit of a risk giving north of $8.250M over an 8-year span, given where the market is going for other players in the same situation.

With Montreal always having to pay a little more to retain its top players in the past, it could make sense to see Caufield hover around the $8M range over a seven or eight-year contract.