Canadiens Comparables For Upcoming Cole Caufield Extension

Montreal Canadiens sniper Cole Caufield‘s season may be over, but there’s still a lot of work to do when it comes to signing him to an extension.

“We’ve been talking for a while now,” said Pat Brisson, Caufield’s agent. “The Montreal Canadiens want to come to an agreement with Cole; he’s part of their long-term plans. Cole also loves Montreal, so we’ve had some good talks to that effect.”

The easiest question to answer is the ideal length of a potential deal. In this case, there’s no doubt the Canadiens should be aiming for the maximum allowable length of contract: eight years.

He’s shown significant growth every season, and as it stands, Caufield is one of the best 5v5 goal scorers in the league. Since the coaching change that brought Martin St-Louis to Montreal, Caufield has scored 31 goals at 5v5, tied with David Pastrnak, Connor McDavid, and Jack Hughes for fourth overall in the NHL. Only Auston Matthews (35), Jason Robertson (34), and Tage Thompson (32) have scored more often.

For a team that clearly lacks shooting talent, Caufield isn’t just an important player, he’s one of the few that can change the momentum of the game with a single shot.

Along with Nick Suzuki, he’s also been earmarked as one of the two players that will act as the team’s foundation for the rebuild.

The Numbers

Prior to the injury, Caufield was on pace for a 46-goal, 18-assist, pro-rated season, and while you could argue his lack of assists may be used as leverage against him in contract negotiations, it must be noted that general managers tend to value goal scoring over any other statistic, which works in Caufield’s favour.

He has struggled to produce solid underlying numbers, although that’s par for the course on a team that finished dead last in 2021-22 and is currently on its way to a bottom-five finish this season. With that in mind, he has generated good possession numbers when Kirby Dach features on his line.

Any way you cut it, Caufield, who turned 22 on January 2nd, is a crucial player on a team that’s building toward the future, and the longer the Canadiens maintain control of his contract, the better.

But how much will the talented forward earn?

To get a better idea, we can take a look at some of the contracts that were recently signed in the NHL by players who produce relatively similar numbers.

Comparables

As evidenced by the chart below, the price for high-end players overflowing with potential tends to start at the $7 million range, although it’s worth noting William Nylander, the cheapest player on the list, signed his contract in 2018, therefore taking a smaller overall percentage of the salary cap.

via CapFriendly

He scores fewer goals than Caufield, but Matthew Boldy’s new deal could be used as a decent comparable given his overall points-per-game page (0.78) is higher than Caufield’s. (0.68).

Kyle Connor scores roughly as often as Caufield while producing significantly more assists, another contract worth keeping in mind for the Montreal Canadiens.

Closer to home, the Ottawa Senators signed Brady Tkachuk to the richest extension on the list. At the time, Tkachuk had produced 0.63 points per game, slightly less than Caufield.

Of course, the Canadiens could take a much riskier approach due to the recent shoulder injury.

There’s always the option to sign Caufield to a bridge deal, but given his potential, it has a significant risk of backfiring, as we’re seeing with the Jason Robertson extension in Dallas.

Regardless of which deal is used as a comparable, the final number is likely to be in the $7 to $8 million range with the recent trend in contract signings.

As a reminder, captain Nick Suzuki recently signed the richest contract offered to a forward in Canadiens franchise history. It pays him $7.85 million per season until 2029-30.

There’s logic in the argument that Caufield’s contract should not be higher than Suzuki’s, not only because Suzuki is a more complete player, but it sets a salary structure that should help the team navigate the choppy waters of the salary cap for the next decade.

All contract information via CapFriendly.