Canadiens Should Consider Splitting Up Caufield And Suzuki

One of the most encouraging developments for the Montreal Canadiens this season has been the emergence of Kirby Dach as a dominant possession player.

Regardless of who Dach plays alongside, he tends to produce fantastic numbers, much like Brendan Gallagher did in the past.

To give you an idea of his impact, we can simply look at the results from Thursday night’s matchup against the Florida Panthers.

The Canadiens only controlled 47 percent of the shots at 5v5 (34-38) and 33 percent of the high-danger chances (6-12), and yet, Dach’s line, which featured Mike Hoffman and Josh Anderson still managed to generate a healthy amount of offence, seeing as they almost had a 65 percent advantage in shots.

Mike Matheson goes for a skate, Kirby Dach creates the rebound and Josh Anderson makes it 4-1! pic.twitter.com/0cy4F91hpA

— Scott Matla (@scottmatla) January 18, 2023

You can repeat the experiment almost every night.

Dach continuously improves the underlying numbers of his linemates, owing to his penchant for quickly driving the play up the ice with control of the puck.

That last part is particularly important.

A controlled entry doubles the chances a team will take a shot or score a goal.

And while Dach’s great debut bodes well for the future, it also highlights a red flag on the Canadiens’ top line.

Caufield And Suzuki

You’d be hard-pressed to argue Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki are not the most important players on the Canadiens roster, but despite their very healthy results from a production point of view, there’s a major red flag in their numbers.

Without a player like Sean Monahan or Dach providing crucial time and space in transition, the pair tends to get outshot and outchanced by a significant margin.

To give you an idea of the Dach effect, we need to take a look at their underlying numbers since the start of the year.

While playing with Dach, Caufield and Suzuki have held a 52 percent advantage in shots and a 51 percent advantage in high-danger scoring chances, resulting in an expected goals-for percentage of 50.5 percent.

Without Dach, the numbers drop dramatically, to the tune of 41.7 percent in shots, 22 percent of the high-danger chances, and a little over 30 percent of the expected goals.

Hellebuyck misplays a Nick Suzuki shot and Kirby Dach cashes in.

2-1 Habs! pic.twitter.com/azeEBsJn32

— Scott Matla (@scottmatla) November 4, 2022

In other words, the Canadiens’ best players are spending a lot more time defending than attacking, using up precious energy that should be used in an offensive role.

This leads us to the next question.

Is placing the team’s best offensive tools on the same line a wise approach?

With just two of the 10 top-line combinations put together by St-Louis producing positive underlying numbers, you could argue that by placing their offensive eggs in the same basket, the Canadiens are making life easier on opponents and limiting the potential of their young stars.

As Dach transitions back to being a centre, splitting up the duo would add a little more balance to a lineup that lacks depth, and perhaps reveal surprising chemistry.

It would also give younger players an opportunity to prove their worth, without the pressure of living up to Dach’s impressive start with the Canadiens.

It’s an experiment worth pursuing, at least temporarily.

All Montreal Canadiens statistics and heatmaps are 5v5, via NaturalStatTrick.com