Montreal Canadiens
Playoff Outcomes Could Help Canadiens Draft Hopes
The Montreal Canadiens own a good trade asset in the Winnipeg Jets’ 1st-round pick, and certain playoff outcomes could make that pick more interesting than initially thought.
Since acquiring Winnipeg’s 1st-round pick in exchange for Sean Monahan in early February, general manager Kent Hughes has been monitoring the Jets’ performances to gauge where that pick may eventually land.
Initially, many believed the pick would land between 27th and 32nd overall, given the Jets’ strong season, but, where the pick ultimately lands will be tied to Winnipeg’s success or lack thereof in the NHL Playoffs.
NHL betting odds currently have the Winnipeg Jets at +1500 odds to win the Stanley Cup this season, which are the 11th-best odds of the 16 qualified teams. That’s not a significant show of confidence from money lines, but, they also didn’t have the Florida Panthers marching to the Stanley Cup Finals on their bingo cards either, so anything is possible.
That being said, there are a multitude of scenarios for the final draft rank of Winnipeg’s 1st rounder, ranging from 32nd overall to 23rd overall.
We break it all down for you below:
Usual NHL Draft Order
First off, the last four picks in an NHL Draft, regardless of the NHL standings, go to the final four teams in the NHL playoffs; that’s to say the four teams that make it to their respective Conference Finals.
The order is then split as follows:
- 32nd overall: Stanley Cup Champion
- 31st overall: Runner-Up
- 30th overall: Conference Final Loser With Most Points
- 29th overall: Conference Final Loser With Least Points
This means that, if the Winnipeg Jets reach the Conference Finals, the lowest their 1st-round pick could be is 29th overall. Should they reach the Stanley Cup Finals, the pick would become 31st overall should they fail to win the Cup or 32nd overall should they break Canada’s Stanley Cup 31-year drought.
Montreal Canadiens fans remember this process well, as the Florida Panthers, the lowest-seeded team in the NHL Playoffs last year, went to the Stanley Cup Finals. In doing so, the rank of their 1st-round pick, owned by the Canadiens at the time, rose from 17th overall to 31st overall.
But what happens if the Jets fall to the Colorado Avalanche in round one or to their potential opponents in round 2? Well, that’s where things get interesting.
Montreal Canadiens Could Receive Help From Other Sources
If the Jets fail to make the Western Conference Finals, things get a little interesting. They may have finished with the 4th-best record in the NHL, but, the fact that they didn’t win the Central Division could help their pick slide a little more than initially thought.
The final four teams would get picks 32 to 29, but then, the next picks are earmarked for any division champions that fail to qualify for the Conference Finals. As a reminder, the New York Rangers, Dallas Stars, Florida Panthers and Vancouver Canucks all won their respective divisions this season.
Should all four division champions make the Conference Finals, the Montreal Canadiens would have the following scenario on their hands:
- 32nd overall: Stanley Cup Champion
- 31st overall: Runner-Up
- 30th overall: Conference Final Loser With Most Points
- 29th overall: Conference Final Loser With Least Points
- 28th overall: Non-Division Champion With Most Points (Carolina)
- 27th overall: Non-Division Champion With Second-Most Points (Winnipeg -> Montreal)
Given the strength of each division, the possibility for upsets is real; and that’s where things become interesting.
If say, two of the four division champions were to be eliminated from playoff contention in the first or second round by a lower-seeded team, that would disrupt the draft order quite a bit. For this exercise, let’s say the Florida Panthers are shocked in the first round by the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Dallas Stars end up getting ousted in the second round, and the final four teams standing are the Panthers, Bruins, Canucks and Oilers.
Then the draft order would play out as such:
- 32nd overall: Stanley Cup Champion
- 31st overall: Runner-Up
- 30th overall: Conference Final Loser With Most Points
- 29th overall: Conference Final Loser With Least Points
- 28th overall: Divisional Champion With Most Points (Dallas)
- 27th overall: Divisional Champion With 2nd most points (Florida -> Philadelphia)
- 26th overall: Non-Division Champion With Most Points (Carolina)
- 25th overall: Non-Division Champion With Second-Most Points (Winnipeg -> Montreal)
The Best Scenario For Montreal Canadiens
So let’s get down to brass tacks here.
The best possible scenario for the Montreal Canadiens would be if 2024 was the year of the upsets, with all four divisional champions and the Carolina Hurricanes, as well as the Winnipeg Jets, missing the final four.
Although improbable, a final four that includes two of Toronto/NYI/Washington coming out of the East and LA/Nashville/Edmonton/Colorado in the West would ensure that Winnipeg’s pick could fall all the way to 23rd overall.
Should all the stars align, this would be the breakdown in draft order:
- 32nd overall: Stanley Cup Champion
- 31st overall: Runner-Up
- 30th overall: Conference Final Loser With Most Points
- 29th overall: Conference Final Loser With Least Points
- 28th overall: Divisional Champion With Most Points (NYR)
- 27th overall: Divisional Champion With Second-Most Points (Dallas)
- 26th overall: Divisional Champion With Third-Most Points (Florida -> Philadelphia)
- 25th overall: Divisional Champion With Fourth-Most Points (Vancouver -> Calgary)
- 24th overall: Non-Division Champion With Most Points (Carolina)
- 23rd overall: Non-Division Champion With Second-Most Points (Winnipeg -> Montreal)
Endless Possibilities
Although the odds of this scenario playing out would be highly improbable, it goes to show the range of probability leading into the playoffs, as Winnipeg’s pick could range widely from 32nd to 23rd overall.
If the Montreal Canadiens will be looking to use Winnipeg’s 1st rounder as an asset in a larger trade for a top-six forward, some playoff luck would go a long way.
No matter where the pick ultimately lands, you can expect general manager Kent Hughes to already be planning his next move, with his plentiful bank of futures and prospects ready to be leveraged in the right deal.
*For more NHL betting lines and futures, head over to FanDuel
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I’m on the fence on this one. I understand that Sean has a history of getting injured and that the Habs already get a 2025 1st rd pick for him from either CAL or FLA.
But he has had a phenomenal season…much like Tofolli was having when he got dealt – for “only” the 26th pick (Mesar). I feel Sean was worth more than an approximate 26th pick. He makes Winny better. They are going into the playoffs on fire. Unless the AVs take them out in rd 1, I see them making the Conf finals.
Its a “nice” pick to have, but most often doesn’t move the needle, so to speak. 23-32 doesn’t make much difference. To me, it’s trade fodder either way…
I’ll never understand takes like this. Toffoli wasn’t producing anywhere near what he is now with us. You can’t look at trade value based on how players perform with their new team cuz that’s an unknown at the time of the trade and therefore doesn’t factor in. Yes, the acquiring team thinks “how will he play with us” but they don’t actually know. Getting a first, a 5th, a depth piece and a prospect is pretty decent for what Toffoli was putting up at the time.
As for monahan, we all love him, but with his injury history he was never getting more than that. The overwhelming majority of the hockey world outside of habs fans were laughing at the idea of us getting a 1st for him. But we got one. If he had 3 straight years of this level of performance, you’d be absolutely right that the return is underwhelming, but he didn’t.
Getting Dach and Newhook for what we did tools pretty good now (assuming Dach stays healthy… which admittedly is far from certain). But it shows that Hugo can flip assets like this (yes I know Romanov went for a higher first to start the Dach trade). Turning an aging, injury prone player into potentially another young top-6 forward is great. Yes we’ll prob throw in a Dprospect, but none of the ones we want to trade will get a sure top 6 in return.
I see no reason to view these moves as anything but positive. Especially since this group has shown they can grab good pieces in later rounds and we still haven’t made all our picks from these trade
We got fleeced for Toffoli. Period.
His stats with the Habs = 70pts/89games = 0.79ppg
His stats since leaving the Habs = 0.76ppg
He was worth a 1st and PLUS…
If Winny loses in the first rd and we get better than a 25th pick for Sean, I’ll be happy. Regardless, its still trade fodder.
So Toffoli = Sean in terms of the return? About pick #26? Something is wrong here…
So your option would have been to keep him in order to do what? Get a 7th pick in the 2024 draft instead of a 5th? Or is that perhaps fodder as well. The truth of the matter is that its all currency, so although a late first round pick is a lower value, its better than nothing, which is what we would have if we held on to him. And like i said, if he ends up helping us win even 1 more game during the last 20 games of the season, we end up 7th pick instead of 5th. That value their is actually another late first rounder easily if not more in some cases. So we basically got 2 first rounders.
Given his cap hit, term, and the fact he wanted to play in Montréal, they gave up a prime asset and proven performer in his prime for futures. The trade isn’t won or lost until we see what the pieces we got back for Toffoli can be. I’d just bought a Toffoli jersey the summer before he was dealt, lol.
So, let’s say I agree with you and Monahan was worth more then a distant 1st in my mind. Now obviously I can’t get a better offer so I keep him. Today, Montreal has 4 more points thanks to heroic Monahan. Our draft position is now 7th instead of 5th. We still don’t make the playoffs, we don’t have that useless distant first as you say and Monahan is now a unrestricted free agent on July 1st. But I held my ground with my pride and I didn’t gave it away to Winnipeg. Oh and I am getting fired as well….
Habs draft position isn’t 5th. That’s our lottery order. The draft position is likely to be 6th by probably.
The rest of your point however stands.
Same math works for the 7th, odds are it could be an 8th, so 5 or 7th, or 6th or 8th.
You don’t seem to be putting much consideration that Monahan was a pending UFA, and the Habs were only going to get 2 months of meaningless contribution from him if they kept him. Trading him also opened the door for Newhook to progress.
Let’s look at some recent 23rd overall picks vs 32nd:
The possibility of a good young player is much more in the hands of the Canadiens then whether they get the the 27th or 32nd pick.